Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Saturday morning, January 27, 2024

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all slopes facing northwest through north and east, and mid and upper elevation slopes facing west and southeast. All other slopes have a LOW avalanche danger.

MODERATE danger with a buried persistent weak layer is not a green light nor is it the same as MODERATE danger with another type of avalanche problem. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully to identify thin, rocky, steep areas where slab avalanches may fail in a persistent weak layer buried 2-5' deep.

With today's warming you may see wet loose avalanche activity on lower or mid elevation slopes out of the wind zone.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

Learn how to read the forecast here

Special Announcements

Join us for a Motorized Backcountry 101: Introduction to Avalanches class on February 2-3 down on the Skyline. Click HERE for more information.

Weather and Snow

This morning, under partly cloudy skies temperatures are in the mid 20's °F. Winds are blowing from southwest 10 gusting 15 MPH. There was no new snow overnight.

For today, we should see mostly sunny skies with temperatures from 34-37°F and winds blowing from the north-northwest 5 gusting to 10 MPH at the 9,000' ridgelines and 30 gusting to 35 MPH at the 11,000' ridgelines. Winds are forecast to decrease throughout the day.

Looking forward we can expect to see progressively warmer temperatures with clear skies through the middle of the week with the next storm on the horizon for the end of the week. Read more from our partners at the National Weather Service HERE.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday there was an avalanche reported from Ant Knolls on the northern edge of the Provo Forecast region. This avalanche is representative of what you may find during Moderate danger with a buried persistent weak layer. This avalanche was 3' deep by 300' wide and ran 1000' vertical feet failing on facets under a hard slab on an east facing slope at 9,700'.

There were also a few reports of 3-4" deep avalanches in the new snow running on a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects. Some of these avalanches involved a bit of wind loading and there is still soft snow available for transport; you may find areas with shallow wind drifts at higher elevations on south through east facing slopes.

On a trip through Mary Ellen on the border of the Salt Lake and Provo area forecast regions we had some wet-loose rollerball activity on southerly facing slopes below 8,000' and I would expect to see the same up to higher elevations today with the forecasted rise in temperature.

Photo of Ant Knolls Avalanche (Photo Credit R. Shea)

Click here for all recent observations and avalanches.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

These avalanches involving buried persistent weak layers are not to be fooled with; if it's a thin snowpack over steep rocky terrain then you're taking a gamble. While the danger may have dropped from Considerable to Moderate the mountains don't care what the avalanche forecast is. For today, I will still be assessing terrain and avoiding zones that are steep and rocky with dry facets now buried close to the ground as these are the areas where you are more likely to trigger an avalanche.

If you choose to venture into steeper terrain:

Continually evaluate the snowpack looking for thinner areas where it may be easier to trigger an avalanche in the buried PWL
Avoid steep, rocky slopes where the snowpack is likely to be thinner
Back off of steep slopes when red flags are present, such as collapsing or recent avalanches

Additional Information

Nikki and Greg discuss the forecaster mindset when moving to a Moderate Danger with a buried Persistent Weak Layer (PWL)

Eric Trenbeath (Moab Avalanche Forecaster) put together a great blog discussing Moderate Danger with a buried Persistent Weak Layer. Read it HERE.

General Announcements

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures