This morning, a strong Pacific jet is riding in on strong winds out of the west—but should only graze the Provo zone. Anemometers are showing hourly wind speeds in the 20s with gusts to near 40mph. Mountain temperatures hover around freezing under broken skies.

Today, there's a chance for some modest precipitation to fall by the afternoon. Steady 15-30mph winds at ridgetops will blow throughout the day, gusting into the 40s mph. Snow levels will start above 8,500' before dropping to around 6,000' by the afternoon. There's a lot of uncertainty in precip totals, timing, and snow lines, but the most favored, high, alpine areas will only be seeing up to 0.5" of H2O, with a mix of snow and rain by the end of the day.

Looking ahead, this is the start of a pattern shift towards unsettled weather with moist air intrusion from the jet stream. Expect a weaker pulse on Thursday before more water arrives over the weekend...however, snow lines are uncertain in the models. Cross your fingers.

Gary Larson shows us communication isn't always that simple.

Let's talk about avalanche danger, and the boxes we use to communicate it. The fact of the matter is that you shouldn't get too focused on the color of the rose today. This morning, it is unlikely that you can trigger an avalanche‚ meaning the danger is LOW. The faceted snowpack, with a variety of crusts, needs a new slab on top to produce avalanches. We opted to drop the danger, even with active weather coming in, as we felt this was most accurate for the Provo zone. However, if the storm overproduces, we'd like to emphasize that the danger could rise to MODERATE, producing a new slab on top of our weak existing snow. This storm in particular has a lot of uncertainty. Not seeing the storm produce? The danger hasn't risen. Getting blasted by snow and wind, seeing slabs of new snow develop? It's on the rise. We're forced to pick a color, but there's at least a couple (dozen) ways to communicate the same message.