Forecast - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Friday morning, December 26, 2025

A MODERATE avalanche danger exists in the upper elevation bands on west to north to east facing slopes. Here, it's possible to trigger a slab avalanche that fails 1-2 feet deep on a persistent weak layer (PWL) of sugary, faceted snow. Collapsing and cracking may or may not be present to warn of the danger.

(Note that many solar aspects and low elevations have little to no snow)

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

The Grinch - 1

The Wasatch - 0

Rain fell to the highest elevations Christmas Eve into Christmas Day with total water amounts varying wildly through the Provo mountains. The Timp Divide snotel station reports about an inch of liquid water, while Tibble Fork reports just under half that. Aspen Grove and Sundance reported a trace to 0.20" of rain. As such, crusts abound in the mid and upper elevations while lower elevations remain soggy and unsupportable where there is snow.

For today, we'll have overcast skies and perhaps some light snowfall by afternoon. The rain-snow line is expected to be 7000', but dropping. Temps will be in the upper 20s up high, the upper 30s down low. Accompanying winds will be moderate to strong from the southwest. A storm arrives tonight that will bring 4-8" with a few more inches expected Saturday night. The cold front will drop temps to the single digits by late Saturday.

Recent Avalanches

There were no reported avalanches yesterday in the Provo zone.

Find all recent observations HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

There is a fair bit of capital U Uncertainty here in regards to the snowpack. The warmth (over the past week(s) and rain has dampened the snow from the top down and the bottom up and we have an 'isothermal' snowpack in many areas. The lingering problem, however, is that the poor structure still exists and I think it's still possible for someone to trigger an avalanche that fails on one of two layers of faceted snow (PWLs). That is, if they can collapse the superficial crusts. Time will tell how this whiplash in temperatures will affect the structure in the coming days. What I will say is that the risk matrix for getting on steep polar terrain today registers as moderate risk but with very low reward.

And...just to add more complexity to the overall picture: rain crusts are notorious for both connecting slopes together AND fostering the development of weak, faceted grains. We'll be watching with interest.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures