Forecast - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Tuesday morning, December 30, 2025

A MODERATE avalanche danger exists in the backcountry. You'll find loose dry and loose wet avalanches, pockets of shallow slabs of wind blown snow in their respective locations (read on below) and a low-probability but high consequence scenario with triggering a hard slab that steps 1-2' down into old faceted snow.

Hot Tip! - the best and safest riding is found on mid and upper elevation shady low angle slopes.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Skies are clear.

Winds are from the west and generally light except along the highest elevations where they're blowing 15-20mph. Temps are in the upper 20s to low 30s but are inverted under this ridge of high pressure: low elevation temps are currently in the teens.

Look for sunny skies, light winds, and temps rising into the upper 30s and possibly low 40s today. We have a potentially wet storm arriving from the southwest Wednesday night. Storm totals may be 4-8" but with a rough rain-snow line at 8000'. This storm may favor the Provo mountains. Potentially unsettled (active?) late weekend into next week.

Coverage is thin, but UAC forecaster braved the "thickets" to get up to 9200' in upper Big Springs of the South Fork. His excellent report is HERE. There, he found mostly stable conditions but did not get on any steep slopes. He confirmed a poor snowpack structure that may be triggered in isolated terrain of the mid and upper elevations. Fortunately (?) the rain crust is thinner than in other areas.

Recent Avalanches

We didn't hear of any avalanches in the Provo area mountains yesterday, but there were plenty of loose dry and loose wet sluffs in the central Wasatch. On Sunday, a skier in the Alta/Brighton backcountry triggered a 1-3' thick hard slab that failed on our PWL of faceted snow in steep northerly terrain at 10,400'. He was lucky to escape.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Sluffing of the storm snow will be possible today, particularly on the steepest solar aspects as the storm snow transitions to damp and then wet with today's sun and rapidly rising temperatures. WET SLUFFS may run naturally and with provocation and will run fast/far and entrain lots of snow as they cascade down the slick Christmas Eve rain crust (CERC!). Pinwheels, rollerballs, and natural sluffs are clear signs you've started to overstay your welcome and it's time to change aspects.

DRY SLUFFS (aka Dry Point Releases) are also possible in the low density storm snow in very steep terrain. Again, the rain crust is the compounding issue as the loose snow wants to run fast and far on the slick crusts.

Because of the sneaky overnight winds, don't be surprised to find newly formed SOFT SLABS OF WIND DRIFTED SNOW along the highest elevation bands. These will be most prevalent on north to east to south facing slopes and may be triggered at a distance.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

There is a persistent weak layer (PWL) of weak, faceted snow and depth hoar down near the ground on northerly-facing aspects above about 9,000 feet. Sunday's avalanche on Sunset Peak failed on this PWL, control work from resorts also indicate avalanches failing on the PWL remain possible, and full propagation with extended column tests on this PWL continue. Bo's photos of the snow structure on a northeast facing slope at 9200' is below. Note the crust and the basal weak snow.

Dealing with a PWL is already tricky business, and now the Christmas Rain Crust further complicates things as the crust may be strong enough on some slopes to support the recent load of new and wind-drifted snow, while other slopes may have a thinner crust where a rider may be able to affect the PWL and trigger an avalanche up to two feet deep and over a hundred feet wide. Ski cuts are notoriously ineffective tools at mitigating this problem as they often allow you to get well onto a slope before triggering an avalanche that propagates above you; existing tracks on a slope are also not an indication of stability (there are plenty of tracks adjacent to the Sunset Peak slide.)

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures