Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Special Announcements

Greatest Rain on Earth?!?: Forecaster Drew Hardesty penned a new essay about high-elevation rain and the warm-snow drought HERE.

Weak Snow: Today's Surface, Tomorrow's Avalanche Problem: Essay by UAC Director Paige Pagnucco HERE.

Weather and Snow

Yesterday evening, the storm finally arrived a bit late. Favored areas picked up 1-2 inches snow // 0.1-0.2 inches H20 by 6am, while winds blew out of the SSW in the high teens to low 20s mph.

Today, the warm atmospheric river continues with freezing levels rising near 8k feet. Mountain temps will be in the 30s F (40s F for the less-favored, rainy areas) with sustained moderate winds from the SSW gusting strong. These winds are as much a part of the story as the snowfall is. There is a potential for thunderstorms during snowfall, so hold onto your hat (and get your kite + key). As the storm carries on today into tomorrow, we can expect:

Favored areas (Pow Mow, mountains East of Eden): 2-3 inches of snow // 0.3-0.5 inches H2O by 5pm
Less-favored areas (Snowbasin, Ogden Skyline): Trace-1 inch of snow // 0.2-0.4 inches H2O by 5pm

Tonight into tomorrow, freezing levels will drop back to near 7k feet as temps gradually cool off. Precipitation will continue, with the potential for up to an additional precipitation Winds out of the SSW will continue to blow light to moderate, transporting any dry surface snow with them. This round of precip will taper into Thursday.

Pattern shifts as mindset shifts: We have been in an open season mindset for ~a month. Our last large storm ended on 1/9, leaving us with far-flung travel, and a mostly LOW avalanche danger. I'm using the pattern shift for an intentional pause to shift my mindset. There are two things certain this week: more snow (of some amount) and increased avalanche activity (of some amount as well). We will not be getting one without the other. Reining in my status quo notions of where and how to travel is at the forefront of my mind, as is dialing back terrain choices as more snow falls. (Roger Atkins has some more for you to chew on HERE).

Recent Avalanches

No avalanche activity was reported in the Ogden Zone this week.

I visited Snowbasin on Monday, and Greg was on Cutler Ridge on Saturday, looking at the current snow surface ahead of what will - hopefully - be a period of snowfall, beginning this week. You can view all recent observations here, including some awesome pre-storm satellite imagery from Derek DeBruin.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

1-3" of dense snow fell overnight in favored areas, with the potential for more to fall by sunset tonight (along with some rain to 8k'). This new precip means a few things for us, other than a refresh for riding:

Wind-drifted snow: The new snow combined with SSW winds since yesterday means wind slabs are building at upper and exposed mid-elevation slopes. These slabs will be most common near ridgelines, and will build in size and reactivity during the day. Drifts, dunes, pillows, and textured surfaces are signs the wind has been at work. Expect these to be quite reactive, as...
Weak snow beneath: Pockets of wind-drifted snow at upper and mid-elevations will likely be quite reactive, especially on slopes facing NW-N-E, as they will build atop weak, faceted snow. This is the same snow that has been rotting for the past month, and is so unconsolidated that it started causing dry loose sluffs in recent weeks. These will potentially be able to propagate widely and be triggered from a distance away.
New snow/rain on snow: With 8k' freezing levels expect the possibility for the new snow/precipitation—especially on sheltered mid and lower elevation slopes—to be able to consolidate into dense slabs on top of old snow, or start to cause wet loose issues.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures