Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Monday, January 3, 2022
Monday, January 3, 2022
AVALANCHE CONDITIONS REMAIN DECEPTIVELY TRICKY
Near and above treeline, especially in the wind zone, the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. Triggering a deep, dangerous avalanche is LIKELY, particularly on steep, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass.
Look for MODERATE avalanche danger below treeline where human triggered avalanches are possible on steep, shady slopes.
What to do and where to go... what's your exit strategy? The Uintas are blessed with open meadows and rolling terrain that isn't steep enough to produce avalanches. Practice your riding technique and rip deep trenches in a big open meadow today, or head to low angle, sunny slopes that didn't have old October snow for some fun turns in the sun. But remember- let's give the steep, shady slopes some time to get comfortable in their new winter coats.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
A band of high, thin clouds drifted into the region overnight, keeping temperatures at bay and currently registering in the teens and mid 20's. Along the high ridges, southerly winds bumped into the 20's and mid 30's for a few hours around dinnertime, but backed off early this morning and now blow in the teens. The two week storm cycle was a gift to the range and the Uinta's got pasted... riding and turning conditions are all time!
FORECAST-
Look for partly cloudy skies with temperatures climbing into the mid 30's. Clouds and southwest winds increase by days end as the first in a series of storms is poised to roll into the area.
FUTURECAST-
A weak storm slides into the region Tuesday, with another stronger system on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.
Here are the water numbers since December 23 from SNOTEL sites. As a general rule of thumb one inch of water equates to 12 inches of snow.
North Slope to Mirror Lake Hwy-
Chalk Creek - 5.4" H2O
Hayden Fork - 4.3" H2O
Trial Lake - 7.2" H2O
South half of the range-
Currant Creek - 5.7" H2O
Daniels-Strawberry - 5.5" H2O
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Ace observer Micheal J reported this very large, well-connected natural avalanche from Lower Weber Canyon. Micheal notes... "I can't say I've ever seen this slope with this deep and wide of a crown before."
In addition, I'm happy to report no close calls or significant human triggered slides to report from a very busy weekend... thanks for that!
Click HERE for a list of recent avalanches.
A list of all other observations is found HERE
Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Mark offers some great advice on how to enjoy all this amazing snow
While the snowpack is getting comfortable in its new winter coat we can't forget this basic fact... a persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow near the ground still exists. And while we're headed in the right direction, this weak layer hasn't miraculously healed overnight and will continue producing human triggered hard and soft slab avalanches today. Remember... all the dense heavy snow, coupled with strong winds in December created a very stiff slab on top of this weak layer. The good news is that it is very supportable. The bad news is that:
- Once triggered, avalanches may break hundreds of feet wide.
- It may not be the first person on a slope that triggers A LARGE, DANGEROUS avalanche, it may be the second, third, fourth, etc. who triggers it.
- Seeing tracks on a slope DOES NOT mean it's safe.
PWL exists on any slope that harbored old October snow, which grew and sugary during the November dry spell. Most low elevations slopes and south-facing slopes don't have this layer.
Slopes loaded by south winds are the exact ones where this weak layer exists. The addition of wind-drifted snow will make avalanches even larger, deeper, and more deadly.
Over the weekend, Ted was on the east side of the range where he experienced collapsing and strong snow over weak snow... JG was in the Weber Canyon snowbelt and found a much stronger pack.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Overnight, fresh wind drifts formed along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges. While not particularly widespread and mostly confined to our big, upper elevation terrain, today's drifts are easy to detect by their fat, rounded appearance. Lose a little elevation and you lose the problem.
Additional Information
What a way to ring in the NEW YEAR!
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Tuesday January 4th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.