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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Thursday, December 30, 2021
Please think about your terrain choices and the potentially catostrophic consequences of triggering an avalanche today-
Near and above treeline, especially in the wind zone, you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger and human triggered slides are LIKELY, particularly on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass. Remember- any avalanche that fails on old October snow will break deeper and wider than you might expect and will instantly ruin your day.
While not as widespread, you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger in steep terrain, below treeline and near the trailheads. Human triggered avalanches are possible on steep, wind drifted slopes.
Here's your exit strategy- there's plenty of safe, low angle terrain, but the key to avoiding avalanches is to avoid being on, under, or anywhere near slopes steeper than 30 degrees, especially those facing the north half of the compass. Carve deep trenches in a big open meadow or choose terrain that held no old October snow (think low elevation terrain facing the south half of the compass)
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
Under a blanket of clouds, it's warmed nearly 10 degrees since yesterday at this time, but it's still crisp with morning temperatures currently registering in the mid teens and upper single digits. A band of moisture settled into the region late last night, delivering a couple inches of medium density snow. Southwest winds have been humming in the 30's and 40's all night along the high ridges. Riding and turning conditions are outstanding, especially in wind sheltered mid elevation terrain.
FORECAST-
The warm up band brings scattered light snow showers throughout the day with a couple inches stacking up. West and southwest winds blowing 30-50 mph are gonna be a nuisance along the high ridges. Temperatures rise into the low 20's.
FUTURECAST-
The headliner works its way onto the stage tonight, shortly after sunset and we can expect a good shot of snow with a solid foot stacking up by early Friday morning. Snow showers linger through Friday, tapering off late in the day. Clearing late Friday night allows temperatures to crash into negative territory.
Our snowpack went from zero to hero. Here's a 30,000 foot view of the recent round of storms where most of the region doubled total settled snow depths and reported impressive water numbers-
North Slope to Mirror Lake Hwy-
Chalk Creek added 3.75" H2O
Hayden Fork with 3.4" H2O
Trial Lake clocks in with 5.5" H2O
South half of the range-
Currant Creek registering 4.2" H2O
Strawberry checks in with 2.9" H2O
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
With a little thump, this slab was remotely triggered from a distance, failing on old October snow in steep, rocky terrain facing the north half of the compass. Not the biggest or the deepest, but the structure says it all. Avalanches are finding the weakest link and breaking to the ground. Snow-pro, Bill Nalli's most excellent full depth observation of this slide is found HERE.
Click HERE for a list of recent avalanches.
A list of all other observations is found HERE

Observations, trip reports, and avalanches found here.
Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Mark delivers an outstanding explanation of the snowpack layering he found during his travels around Trial Lake yesterday. A summation of his travels are found HERE.
The snowpack is slowly adjusting to the big Christmas storm which stacked up a respectable amount of snow, a massive amount of water weight, and ushered in days of relentless winds. And remember... this all piled up on a shaky foundation. Yeah, the range turned white overnight and it all looks good to go, but we're at an early season, adolescent cross-roads in the life of our snowpack. Indeed, the snowpack is in its teenage years... getting more predictable and easy to have fun with, but say the wrong thing and it blows up in your face! So, let's not get fooled by how solid and straight-forward the snowpack feels under our skis, board, or sled. Instead, let's think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on and remember the basement layer is a house of cards and needs a little more time to turn the corner and get comfortable in its own skin.
Here's where it gets tricky... the avalanche danger isn't in your face obvious as many slopes that avalanched filled back in with storm snow and now conceal that huge clue. The bottom line is- slopes that haven't already avalanched naturally, just wait for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath it. So, today's avalanche danger is nothing to take lightly as any avalanche triggered may have catastrophic consequences. Once triggered, slab avalanches may break on a persistent weak layer of old snow near the ground, resulting in a deep, wide, unmanageable slide.
Here's your exit strategy- there's plenty of safe, low angle terrain in the Uinta Mountains. But the key to avoiding avalanches is to avoid being on, under, or anywhere near slopes steeper than 30 degrees, especially those facing the north half of the compass.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Both Ted and Michael J found sensitive wind drifts along the leeward side of upper elevation terrain. Their outstanding, spot on observations of current conditions are found HERE.
Winds are always the great equalizer on the eastern front and man... they've been relentless for days. With no shortage of snow to blow around, fresh drifts have formed everywhere, particularly in terrain that harbors a persistent weak layer of sugary facets near the ground. Today you need to avoid any fat, rounded, hollow sounding wind drift because that's exactly the right recipe for avalanches to break deeper and wider than you might expect, especially on steep, shady slopes.
Additional Information
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Friday December 31st.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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