Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Wednesday, December 29, 2021
Wednesday, December 29, 2021
Please think about your terrain choices and the potentially deadly consequences of triggering an avalanche today-
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the western Uinta's where the avalanche danger is HIGH near and above treeline. Both natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely, especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass. The snowpack teeters on the edge as a massive amount of snow, water weight, and strong winds have overloaded our fragile snowpack.
While not as widespread, you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger at treeline and human triggered avalanches are likely on steep, wind drifted slopes.
Human triggered avalanches are possible and a MODERATE avalanche danger exists in steep terrain near the trailheads and wind drifted slopes should be approached with caution.
Here's your exit strategy- there's plenty of safe, low angle terrain, but the key to avoiding avalanches is to avoid being on, under, or anywhere near slopes steeper than 30 degrees, especially those facing the north half of the compass. Carve deep trenches in a big open meadow or choose terrain that held no old October snow (think low elevation terrain facing the south half of the compass)
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
Under partly cloudy skies, a few snow showers linger over the region, adding a chin tickling topper to the 4" of ultra-light fluff that fell yesterday morning. And man... it's cold! Currently, most locations register temperatures in the single digits and negative territory. After a short break for dinner, southwest winds clocked back in for the night shift and hum along the ridges at 25-35 mph. Couple wind speeds with temperature and you've got ice-cream headache inducing windchill at -28 degrees. If you brave the cold you'll be rewarded with superior riding and turning conditions.
FORECAST-
Expect scattered light snow showers throughout the day with little accumulation. West and southwest winds blow 20-30 mph along the ridges, bumping into the 40's and 50's by late afternoon. High temperatures barely crack into the teens and overnight lows crash into negative territory.
FUTURECAST-
A somewhat more organized system brings a persistent round of light to moderate snow from late this afternoon through Wednesday night. Expect 4"-8" of snow by early Thursday morning. A better shot of snow is expected to develop Thursday into Friday with clearing for the weekend.
7 day 30,000 foot view of the recent round of storms where most of the region doubled total settled snow depths and reported impressive water numbers-
North Slope to Mirror Lake Hwy-
Chalk Creek added 3.75" H2O
Hayden Fork with 3.4" H2O
Trial Lake clocks in with 5.5" H2O
South half of the range-
Currant Creek registering 4.2" H2O
Strawberry checks in with 2.9" H2O
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
With a little thump, this slab was remotely triggered from a distance, failing on old October snow in steep, rocky terrain facing the north half of the compass. Not the biggest or the deepest, but the structure says it all. Avalanches are finding the weakest link and breaking to the ground.
With decades of snow and avalanche acumen under his belt, here's what avy pro, snowpack guru, and all around great guy Bill Nalli has to say about our current setup.... "With more time since the major loading event, the snowpack has continued to adjust to the new load and is less sensitive. Fewer obvious signs of instability are present but don't be fooled with the lack of bulls-eye data... and is a reminder that advanced facets rarely behave as you would expect them too and should be given extra respect." Sage advice from a super savvy snow-pro :) Bill's most excellent full depth observation is found HERE.
Click HERE for a list of recent avalanches.
A list of all other observations is found HERE
Observations, trip reports, and avalanches found here.
Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recently reported from Wolf Creek Bowl, this natural avalanche from Monday, broke to old, sugary October snow or the Persistent Weak Layer (PWL)
Don't get fooled by today's, in-your-face, low density snow. Sure, the snowpack will feel solid. In fact, it's gonna feel strong and bomber under our skis, board, or sled. However, we need to think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on and the basement layer is a house of cards and needs some time to adjust from the recent round of snow, water, and wind. Slopes that haven't already avalanched naturally, just wait for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath it. Today's avalanche danger is nothing to toy with as any avalanche triggered may have deadly consequences. Once triggered, slab avalanches will break on a persistent weak layer of old snow near the ground, resulting in a deep, wide, unmanageable slide.
- Avalanches are getting harder to trigger, but will break up to 6 feet deep and hundreds of feet wide in heavily wind loaded areas.
- You don't have to be on a steep slope to trigger a large, dangerous avalanche.
- Avalanches can be triggered from a distance, even on flat terrain.
- You need to stay off of and out from under steep slopes.
Here's your exit strategy- there's plenty of safe, low angle terrain in the Uinta Mountains. But the key to avoiding avalanches is to avoid being on, under, or anywhere near slopes steeper than 30 degrees, especially those facing the north half of the compass.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Observer extraordinaire Michael Janulaitis found sensitive wind drifts along the leeward side of upper elevation terrain yesterday. His outstanding, spot on observation of current conditions is found HERE.
Winds are always the great equalizer on the eastern front and man... they've been relentless for days. With no shortage of snow to blow around, fresh drifts have formed everywhere, particularly in terrain that harbors a persistent weak layer of sugary facets near the ground. Today you need to avoid any fat, rounded, hollow sounding wind drift because that's exactly the right recipe for avalanches to break deeper and wider than you might expect, especially on steep, shady slopes.
Additional Information
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Thursday December 30th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.