Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Tuesday, January 4, 2022
Tuesday, January 4, 2022
HEADS UP... AVALANCHE DANGER LIKELY INCREASES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SLIDING OUR WAY
For today- Near and above treeline, especially in the wind zone, the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. Triggering a deep, dangerous avalanche is LIKELY, particularly on steep, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass.
Look for MODERATE avalanche danger below treeline where human triggered avalanches are possible on steep, shady slopes.
What to do and where to go... what's your exit strategy? There's no shortage of low angle, rolling terrain where you can steer clear of the avalanche dragon and still have a blast. Practice your riding technique and rip deep trenches in a big open meadow today, or head to low angle, sunny slopes that didn't have old October snow for some fun with limited avalanche danger. But remember- let's give the steep, shady slopes some time to get comfortable in their new winter coats.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We are offering an Introduction to Avalanche Rescue Course for the Uinta Region, on January 12th at Nobletts Trailhead. This course is based on snow, practicing with your rescue equipment learning how to rescue a buried partner. With a small student to instructor ratios, we make sure that each student receives individual coaching and feedback on their technique and the opportunity to run through multiple scenarios. Register HERE
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
Southwest winds ramped up and increasing clouds settled in over the region last night as the first in a series of progressively stronger storms slide into the region. Temperatures are relatively mild and register in the teens and mid 20's. Winds are blowing in the obnoxious range, humming along in the 30's and 40's along the ridges with gusts in the 50's near the high peaks. There's gonna be some wind damage in our big, open bowls, so steer towards wind sheltered mid and low elevation terrain where you'll be rewarded with soft, creamy snow.
FORECAST-
The graphic above says it all... more storminess on the way! Look for mostly cloudy skies with temperatures warming into the upper 20's. Light snow develops early this morning and we should see 2"-5" stack up before a late day break. Southwest winds crank into the 40's and 50's with gusts to 70 mph near the high peaks.
FUTURECAST-
A better shot of snow and water are on tap for Wednesday morning through a good portion of the day. Storm totals by late Thursday should be in the 12"-24" range.
Here are the water numbers since December 23 from SNOTEL sites. As a general rule of thumb one inch of water equates to 12 inches of snow.
North Slope to Mirror Lake Hwy-
Chalk Creek - 5.4" H2O
Hayden Fork - 4.3" H2O
Trial Lake - 7.2" H2O
South half of the range-
Currant Creek - 5.7" H2O
Daniels-Strawberry - 5.5" H2O
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Ace observer Micheal J reported this very large, well-connected natural avalanche from Lower Weber Canyon. Micheal notes... "I can't say I've ever seen this slope with this deep and wide of a crown before."
Click HERE for a list of recent avalanches.
A list of all other observations is found HERE
Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a little thump or a cornice fall, avalanches are still breaking to weak snow near the ground like in the image above from Upper Weber Canyon yesterday.
While the snowpack is getting comfortable in its new winter coat we can't forget this basic fact... a persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow near the ground still exists. And while we're headed in the right direction, this weak layer hasn't miraculously healed overnight and will continue producing human triggered hard and soft slab avalanches today. Remember... all the dense heavy snow, coupled with strong winds in December created a very stiff slab on top of this weak layer. The good news is that it is very supportable. The bad news is that:
- Once triggered, avalanches may break hundreds of feet wide.
- It may not be the first person on a slope that triggers A LARGE, DANGEROUS avalanche, it may be the second, third, fourth, etc. who triggers it.
- Seeing tracks on a slope DOES NOT mean it's safe.
PWL exists on any slope that harbored old October snow, which grew and sugary during the November dry spell. Most low elevations slopes and south-facing slopes don't have this layer.
Slopes loaded by south winds are the exact ones where this weak layer exists. The addition of wind-drifted snow will make avalanches even larger, deeper, and more deadly.
Over the weekend, Ted was on the east side of the range where he experienced collapsing and strong snow over weak snow... JG was in the Weber Canyon snowbelt and found a much stronger pack.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Above is a 24 hour data dump from Windy Peak (10,661')
Overnight, southerly winds found enough loose snow to blow around and whip up a fresh round of wind drifts along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges. As winds increase today and snow begins falling, I suspect drifts will form on mid elevation slopes and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. In any case, today we need to avoid steep, wind drifted terrain and remember even a small avalanche can have big consequences if it breaks into weaker layers of the snowpack as it crashes on the slope below.
Additional Information
What a way to ring in the NEW YEAR!
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Wednesday January 5th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.