Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Sunday, January 9, 2022
Sunday, January 9, 2022
The midweek storm delivered a solid shot of dense, heavy snow coupled with very strong winds, creating dangerous avalanche conditions on steep, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass. Today, CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists near and above treeline, especially in the wind zone where deep, dangerous, human triggered avalanches are LIKELY. While more straight-forward, human triggered avalanches are possible on steep, shady, wind drifted slopes at mid elevations where a MODERATE avalanche danger is found.
Where to go? With such excellent coverage, there are many terrain options with less dangerous conditions. Low angle slopes (less than 30 degrees in steepness) are always a great option because they are not steep enough to slide. South-facing slopes without wind drifted snow are a great option as well because they don't have a weak layer near the ground. In either case you'll find generally LOW avalanche danger today in terrain with these characteristics.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Introduction to Avalanche Rescue Course for the Uinta Region, on Wednesday, January 12th at Nobletts Trailhead. This course is based on snow, practicing with your rescue equipment learning how to rescue a buried partner. With a small student to instructor ratios, we make sure that each student receives individual coaching and feedback on their technique and the opportunity to run through multiple scenarios. Register HERE
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
High pressure builds, temperatures register in the low single digits, and stars burst over our mountains under crystal clear skies. Winds are light and northerly, blowing just 5-15-mph even along the high peaks. Friday nights storm piled up 3"-5" of low density snow across the range delivering a fresh coat of white paint on top of a go-anywhere-base.
FORECAST-
Look for mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 20's. Overnight lows dip into the teens.
FUTURECAST-
Mostly sunny skies, light winds, and a warming trend are on tap for the second half of the weekend into midweek.
Ka-Pow! Ted reports excellent shallow powder riding conditions on very supportable, go-anywhere base.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Friday, I spotted this large, well connected natural avalanche in Upper Weber Canyon. Occurring late Thursday night on a heavily wind loaded, east facing slope at 10,400', this piece of snow is nearly three football fields wide. Not particularly deep, averaging 4', yet lots of volume stacking up 10'-15' of debris on a bench-like terrain trap. This terrain is a bit of an outlier and has avalanched several times already this year, but shows us the avalanche dragon is very much alive on the eastern front.
Click HERE for a list of recent avalanches.
A list of all other observations is found HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Uinta Avy Pro Extraordinaire, Ted Scroggin knows the range and the snowpack like the back of his hand and says this about our current snowpack structure... "Kind of feels like conditions are moving in the right direction towards stable snow. The weak sugary snow near the ground is getting buried by recent storms and wind and is unreactive in snow pit tests where the snow pack is deep. But in places where it might still be a little thin which can be hard to always know, I not feeling too comfortable getting into steeper terrain on the north facing slopes." Ted was near Gold Hill yesterday and has an excellent trip report found HERE.
Here's the setup-
A persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted, old, sugary snow near the ground is found mostly in mid and upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass. Remember- late December storms stacked up remarkable amounts of dense, heavy, water laden snow, coupled with very strong winds, bringing the weak layer to its tipping point. And while all of the snow since Christmas is a good thing that eventually heals this weak layer, it doesn't happen overnight. In fact, we've been seeing very large, hard slab avalanches breaking on our early season problem child or, in snow-geek-speak... persistent weak layer (PWL). Wednesday's heavy load of snow, water, and wind stressed this layer again, and I'd continue steering clear of any steep, wind drifted slope, especially those that harbor old October snow.
For now what makes this layer dangerous is:
- Once triggered, avalanches may break hundreds of feet wide.
- Avalanches will be 3-5 feet deep.
- It may not be the first person on a slope that triggers A LARGE, DANGEROUS avalanche, it may be the second, third, fourth, etc. who triggers it.
- Seeing tracks on a slope DOES NOT mean it's safe.
Here's the good news - This layer doesn't exist on south facing slopes which have excellent coverage, and soft creamy powder.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Ace observer Michael Janulaitis is a huge contributor to the Uinta Avy Forecast program and spotted this recent soft slab which avalanched naturally in steep, wind drifted terrain. Michaels very informative observation from Lower Weber Canyon is found HERE
Friday night's fresh, wind drifted snow, camouflaged older wind drifts formed earlier in the week, making this combo harder to detect. I think things settle down a bit today and won't be quite as reactive to our additional weight. But in any case, we want to still look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it appears chalky or sounds hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
Caitlin Hansen, Drew, Craig, and Nikki discuss the current danger rating, dealing with the persistent weak layers, and the problem moving forward this season.
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Monday January 10th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.