Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Wednesday, January 5, 2022
Wednesday, January 5, 2022
HEADS UP... AVALANCHE DANGER WILL RAMP UP AS TODAY'S STORM MATERIALIZES
For today- Near and above treeline, especially in the wind zone, the avalanche danger is HIGH. Triggering a deep, dangerous avalanche is VERY LIKELY, particularly on steep, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass.
As the storm evolves look for CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger developing below treeline where human triggered avalanches are LIKELY on steep, shady slopes.
Lower elevation terrain near the trailheads will get in on the act and you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger on steep wind drifted slopes where human triggered avalanches are possible.
What's your exit strategy? There's no shortage of low angle, rolling terrain where you can steer clear of the avalanche dragon and still have a blast. Practice your riding technique and rip deep trenches in a big open meadow today, or head to low angle, sunny slopes that didn't have old October snow for some fun with limited avalanche danger. But remember- let's give the steep, shady slopes some time to get comfortable in their new winter coats.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Avalanche Warning
AN AVALANCHE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, INCLUDING THE BEAR RIVER AND WASATCH RANGE, AND THE WESTERN UINTAS.
HEAVY DENSE SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN-ON-SNOW AT LOW ELEVATIONS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS AND A HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER.
NATURAL AND HUMAN-TRIGGERED AVALANCHES WILL BE LIKELY ON MANY ASPECTS AND ELEVATIONS.
THIS WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST THURSDAY
Special Announcements
We are offering an Introduction to Avalanche Rescue Course for the Uinta Region, on January 12th at Nobletts Trailhead. This course is based on snow, practicing with your rescue equipment learning how to rescue a buried partner. With a small student to instructor ratios, we make sure that each student receives individual coaching and feedback on their technique and the opportunity to run through multiple scenarios. Register HERE
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
Hang on to your hats, if ya got 'em, and buckle up... we're in for a wild ride! Under mostly cloudy skies, current temperatures register in the teens and mid 20's, but the bigger news is the wind. Southwest winds cranked 35-50 mph for most of yesterday, continuing in that spirit overnight and this morning. A couple inches of low density snow fell Tuesday, but that's just the acoustic version to the big electric extravaganza headed our way later today.
FORECAST-
Southwest winds scream into the 70's along the high peaks, temperatures rise into the 30's, and heavy snow develops later this morning, continuing for a good portion of the day. A foot of dense snow stacks up by about dinnertime.
FUTURECAST-
Another round of snow, water, and winds hammer the region tomorrow.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
No recent significant avalanche activity to report from yesterday.
Click HERE for a list of recent avalanches.
A list of all other observations is found HERE
Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a little thump or a cornice fall, avalanches are still breaking to weak snow near the ground like in the image above from Upper Weber Canyon on Monday.
Sure, the snowpack is getting comfortable in its skin, but we can't forget this basic fact... a persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow near the ground still exists. And while we're headed in the right direction, the PWL hasn't miraculously healed overnight. Here's where it gets tricky... while it's getting harder to trigger a deep, dangerous avalanche, we've gotta remember all the dense heavy, December snow, rests on top of a suspect foundation and today's storm has the potential to bring these weak layers back to life. All we need to do is roll along and knock the legs out from underneath.
Here's where it gets dangerous-
- Once triggered, avalanches may break hundreds of feet wide.
- It may not be the first person on a slope that triggers A LARGE, DANGEROUS avalanche, it may be the second, third, fourth, etc. who triggers it.
- Seeing tracks on a slope DOES NOT mean it's safe.
Slopes loaded by south winds are the exact ones where this weak layer exists. The addition of wind-drifted snow will make avalanches even larger, deeper, and more deadly.
Above, I explain what we're seeing on most low elevation slopes and south-facing terrain that had little or no snow prior to the big Christmas storm.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Above is a 24 hour data dump from Windy Peak (10,661')
Winds are screaming along the ridges and with fresh snow on the way, they'll have no problem forming fresh drifts along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges. As winds increase today and snow begins falling, I suspect drifts will form on mid elevation slopes and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. In any case, today we need to avoid steep, wind drifted terrain and remember even a small avalanche can have big consequences if it breaks into weaker layers of the snowpack as it crashes on the slope below.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Once the storm kicks into gear, new snow stacks up fast and furious and it's gonna be sensitive to our additional weight. So... if you're walking the dog, trail running, or headed out for a family snowshoe, think about avoiding steep, snow covered slopes and terrain traps like road cuts and river bottoms where even a small avalanche can produce a deep pile of debris. There's plenty of terrain with these characteristics above our mountain homes and in our foothills.
Additional Information
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Thursday January 6th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.