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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Monday, January 10, 2022
The good news.... we're headed in the right direction and with a little patience, we're gonna be able to start stepping out into big terrain. For the moment though, avalanche danger still remains tricky.
CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists near and above treeline, especially in the wind zone. While not widespread and becoming pockety in nature, deep, dangerous, human triggered avalanches are LIKELY, especially in steep, rocky terrain, with a shallow, weak, snowpack.
While more straight-forward, human triggered avalanches are possible on steep, shady, wind drifted slopes at mid elevations where a MODERATE avalanche danger is found.

On a go-anywhere base with a little cream on top, there's no shortage of great riding options with less dangerous avalanche conditions. You'll find generally LOW avalanche danger today on slopes facing the south half of the compass and terrain less than 30 degrees in steepness.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Introduction to Avalanche Rescue Course for the Uinta Region, on Wednesday, January 12th at Nobletts Trailhead. This course is based on snow, practicing with your rescue equipment learning how to rescue a buried partner. With a small student to instructor ratios, we make sure that each student receives individual coaching and feedback on their technique and the opportunity to run through multiple scenarios. Register HERE
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
It's a stunning morning in the hills, where clear skies and light winds await your arrival. Temperatures are inverted, registering in the teens at the trailheads and mid 20's along the ridges. Friday nights storm piled up 3"-5" of low density snow across the range delivering a fresh coat of white paint on top of a go-anywhere-base. Riding and turning conditions are about as good as they get.
FORECAST-
Look for mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures climbing into the mid 30's. Overnight lows dip into the teens and mid 20's.
FUTURECAST-
Mostly sunny skies, light winds, and a warming trend are on tap through most of the week.
Ka-Pow! Ted reports excellent shallow powder riding conditions on very supportable, go-anywhere base.

Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Friday, I spotted this large, well connected natural avalanche in Upper Weber Canyon. Occurring late Thursday night on a heavily wind loaded, east facing slope at 10,400', this piece of snow is nearly three football fields wide. Not particularly deep, averaging 4', yet lots of volume stacking up 10'-15' of debris on a bench-like terrain trap. This terrain is a bit of an outlier and has avalanched several times already this year, but shows us the avalanche dragon is very much alive on the eastern front.

Click HERE for a list of recent avalanches.
A list of all other observations is found HERE

Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Exec. Director Chad Brackelsberg stomped around mid Weber Canyon yesterday, finding mostly stable snow and great riding conditions. In the video above, Chad describes his findings whilst conducting a Propagation Saw Test (PST). His results as well as our collective observations and lack of avalanche activity suggest we're shifting towards more stable snowpack characteristics, but still remain in the "low probability/high consequence" realm. An oldie, but a goodie, Trent explains how to set up and interpret this test.
Here's the setup-
A persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted, old, sugary snow near the ground is found mostly in mid and upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass. Remember- late December storms stacked up remarkable amounts of dense, heavy, water laden snow, coupled with very strong winds, bringing the weak layer to its tipping point. And while all of the snow since Christmas is a good thing that eventually heals this weak layer, it doesn't happen overnight. Sure, things are calming down, avalanche activity isn't off the charts, and it's been a few days since any significant slides have been reported. But the big red flag is that last weeks avalanches continue breaking on our early season problem child or, in snow-geek-speak... persistent weak layer (PWL). So, while conditions are slowly improving, I'd continue steering clear of any steep, wind drifted slope, especially those that harbor old October snow.
For now what makes this layer dangerous is:
  • Once triggered, avalanches may break hundreds of feet wide.
  • Avalanches will be 3-5 feet deep.
  • It may not be the first person on a slope that triggers A LARGE, DANGEROUS avalanche, it may be the second, third, fourth, etc. who triggers it.
  • Seeing tracks on a slope DOES NOT mean it's safe.
Here's the good news - This layer doesn't exist on south facing slopes which have excellent coverage, and soft creamy powder.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A few older wind drifts formed last week may still react to our additional weight. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, don't get caught off guard by a cross-loaded terrain feature like a chute or gully. Keep an eye out for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it appears chalky or sounds hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
Caitlin Hansen, Drew, Craig, and Nikki discuss the current danger rating, dealing with the persistent weak layers, and the problem moving forward this season.
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Tuesday January 11th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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