Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Monday, January 10, 2022
Monday, January 10, 2022
Avalanche conditions are relatively safe with the majority of the terrain having a LOW avalanche danger.
A MODERATE avalanche danger remains on mid and upper elevation northwest, north and northeast facing slopes. It is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche that breaks into weak snow near the ground.
The most suspect terrain is slopes of 35 degrees in steepness or greater above 9000' on the north half of the compass. Chances for triggering something are low, consequences are high.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
FREE AVALANCHE AWARENESS CLASS!!
Thursday, January 13, 7pm
Big Pine Sports, Fairview, Utah
Dinner provided!!
Come learn more about avalanche safety. Topics include:
- How to read avalanche terrain
- Basic snowpack structure knowledge
- How to use the daily avalanche forecast
- Overview of manditory safety gear (beacon, shovel, and probe) as well as air bag information
- Q & A to help with any questions you may have
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Riding conditions remain good but I wouldn't rate them as epic. 3 to 5 inches of powder rests on top of a pretty firm old snow surface in most places. Wind has been light and temperatures have generally been in the mid 20s.
Mountain Weather
A ridge of high pressure will provide clear mild weather through the week. Expect mostly clear skies, ridgeline temperatures in the mid to upper 20s and light to moderate wind speeds. I see two "closed low pressure systems" on the horizon that have a chance at producing some snow for us starting about Friday. I'm not holding my breath at this time though. The GFS weather model promises some moisture. The EC is saying "no dice". I'd like to see those two models have at least some sort of agreement before speculating on any potential snowfall.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Chances for triggering an avalanche that breaks into old weak sugary faceted snow near the ground continues to decrease. It seems to be getting to the point where it is unlikely that a person will trigger a large avalanche. However, my experience has taught me that you don't mess with a buried persistent weak layer of sugary faceted snow. It will bite you long after you think it won't. It's the classic low probability, high consequence scenario. Ask yourself if it's worth it to get onto a steep north facing slope right now. I'm in for the long run and don't mind waiting a bit longer. We're going in a good direction, I'm just not sure we are at green light conditions yet.
Persistent Weak Layer Summary, 2021-2022:
There was a foot or more of snow that fell in October.
This snow melted away on many slopes but it stayed on northwest, north and northeast facing slopes above about 8500'.
The snow that stayed turned into a weak sugary layer during dry weather in November.
We saw a large amount of snow in December which landed on top of the weak snow from October.
The weak layer of sugary faceted snow collapsed and produced avalanches under the stress of the large storms.
The weak layer is still present. We are monitoring it and are hopeful it will become more stable with time.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.