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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Saturday morning, December 24, 2022
Little has changed in the past 24 hours. Steep, wind drifted slopes hang in a tenuous balance, just waiting for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath-
Around the compass you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on all steep, mid and upper elevation, wind drifted slopes. The danger is most pronounced in the wind zone at and above treeline, in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered avalanches initiating in the storm snow and then breaking to weak, sugary, midpack snow are LIKELY. Don't get surprised... winds penetrated into lower elevation terrain as well where you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on recently wind drifted slopes.
If you're looking for LOW avalanche danger, step this way, you came to the right place. Simply steer towards mid and low elevation wind sheltered terrain and slopes facing the south half of the compass with no overhead hazard (meaning, no steep slopes above or adjacent to where I'm traveling) where you can have a blast and score some quality riding to boot!
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Huge thanks and ginormous hi-fives to Carl Churchill and the Alpha Coffee team along with everyone who took time out of their busy lives to attend Thursday nights State of the Snowpack prezo. The vibe, energy, and stoke were all time. So, let's keep it tight and keep that spirit rolling throughout the winter :)
As the end of the year approaches, please consider a donation to the UAC to support avalanche forecasting.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- As a weak storm slides through the region, dense clouds drape the Uinta zone this morning, delivering a thin coat of white paint overnight. It feels downright balmy with temperatures registering in the low to mid 20's. Mid week, hurricane force winds torched our big, open terrain, but lose some elevation, steer your snow rig towards sheltered terrain and you'll be rewarded with soft, creamy snow on a go-anywhere base.
Forecast- We might squeeze and inch or two of snow out of today's little storm, but in general it's a non-event. High temperatures climb into the low 30's with overnight lows dipping into the 20's. Northwest winds remain reasonably well-behaved, blowing 10-20 mph along the ridges with a gust or two in the 30's near the high peaks.
Futurecast- The warm before the storm settles in for Monday before a rather significant multi-day storm homesteads Tuesday through the remainder of the upcoming week. Expect strong southwest winds kicking off the storm, decreasing throughout the week. Heavy, wet snow mid-week transitions to the kind of stuff we like... colder, low-density snow toward the end of the week.
Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Our main man, avy-savvy snowpro Ted Scroggin had a look at the Double Hill slide pictured above and has a great writeup HERE.
Initiating in the new snow and breaking to weaker, midpack PWL, this sled triggered avalanche on Double Hill was most likely initiated low on the slope where the snowpack is slightly weaker, yet still connected to steeper terrain above.
Both human triggered and natural avalanches display similar characteristics, revealing a failure in the midpack weakness which leads to avalanches gouging to the ground.
Recent avy activity and a slew of Uinta obs are HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Double Hill crown and simple profile revealing the weak layer
Here's the structure-
Strong snow on top of weaker snow... that snowpack setup isn't entirely unusual for us. What is unusual is that avalanches aren't breaking to weak sugary snow near the ground, that layer is solid and happy in its own skin. Rather... slides are failing on the persistent weak layer formed during the mid November dry-spell and that layer rests a couple feet off the ground. What's important to note is that avalanches now have a smooth surface with little resistance and that means they'll break wider and deeper and run faster and further than you might expect.
Here's the windup-
The most likely place to trigger an avalanche is where the snowpack is slightly shallower like lower down on the slope. The tricky party here is that once you knock the legs out from underneath, the entire wood pile crashes down on you! This avalanche dragon is found on slopes facing the north half of the compass, especially those in the wind zone at and above treeline, and particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. So, by avoiding this setup, you essentially avoid the problem.
Here's the pitch-
My strategy is finding terrain I can ride, have a fun day, and NOT trigger an avalanche. And actually that's an easy one. Travel is straight-forward on a very supportable base and low angle terrain rides like a dream! With no shortage of great riding in big open meadows and on lower angle slopes, there's plenty of opportunity to avoid pulling on the avalanches dragons tail all together.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wednesday winds blew from multiple directions and I bet you'll still find rogue drifts all over the map, in some unusual locations, and lower downslope than we might expect to find them.
In either case, today you'll wanna key in on and avoid any fat looking rounded pillow of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:54 on Saturday December 24th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Sunday December 25th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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