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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
HEADS UP.... THE AVALANCHE DANGER CHANGED OVERNIGHT-
In the wind zone, at and above treeline, you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY and natural avalanches POSSIBLE on steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass and particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect. Any avalanche that breaks into deeper buried weak layers near the ground will result in a deep, dangerous slide.
Mid elevation, wind drifted terrain offers MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
Lose some elevation and you lose much of the problem. Safer riding alternatives exist on lower angle, lower elevation, wind sheltered slopes, especially those facing the south half of the compass with no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding. In terrain with these characteristics you'll find generally LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The accident reports for the four avalanche fatalities are all finalized with some first-hand accounts and worth reading. We all have something to learn so that we can get home safely to our loved ones.
Jan 18 Electric Lake Accident (Skyline area)
Jan 25 Laurel Peak Accident (Moab area)
Feb 7 Circleville Mtn Accident (Southwest area near Beaver, UT)
Feb 9 Chalk Creek Accident (Western Uintas)
Many thanks to these fine gentlemen for helping to install our Beacon Basin on the north end of the Nobletts parking lot. While you're in the hood and waiting for your partner or group, you can keep warm and test your avalanche beacon rescue skills at the same time.... your partners will be stoked.
Weather and Snow
Dang.... the powder party is over as clouds, warm temperatures and strong winds crashed into the region overnight. Unfortunately, temperatures bumped into the mid and upper 20's, nearly 20 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time, and southerly winds are cranking 30-50 mph along the high ridges. The good news is we're headed for a prolonged period of storminess and 4" of evenly distributed dense, spongy snow stacked up across the range last night.
You know it's gonna be a good storm when our good friends and partners at the National Weather Service send one of these weather briefing messages to your inbox. Above, Brian McInerney gives us the detailed lowdown for the incoming storm.
Above is hourly data from Trial Lake (9,945') and Windy Peak (10,662'). To view more regional weather stations click here.
JG was in Upper Weber Canyon Monday. More on his travels here.
Recent Avalanches
Dave Kikkert stomped around Upper Weber Canyon yesterday and found shallow, yet reactive, fresh wind slabs along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges.
Recent trip reports and avy activity found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds ramped up late yesterday and had no problem finding an abundance of light density to blow around and form fresh drifts sensitive to our additional weight. But that was so yesterday and conditions have changed in the past 24 hours. Winds are now cranking along the ridges, they have a few inches of dense heavy snow to work, and today's drifts are gonna be a bigger brother version of what we dealt with yesterday. As a matter of fact, I suspect drifts are more widespread, more connected, and will break deeper than you might expect. As the day wares on and the storm materializes remember to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.
And don't forget-
Cornices are ginormous and may break back further than you might expect. You definitely wanna give these large, unpredictable pieces of snow a wide berth and not ruin someones day below by inadvertently knocking a boxcar size piece of snow down on them
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We are trending in the right direction and recent snowpack stability tests along with the lack of avalanches failing on weak snow near the ground suggest we're turning the corner. Also streaming in from the good news department is this... most terrain where the snowpack is becoming thick and strong, deep dangerous avalanches are becoming harder to trigger. All encouraging news for sure, but we've got to remember there's a lot of terrain that makes up the landscape of the western Uinta range and I'm not entirely convinced all slopes are good to go. However, our theories will get tested as the next series of storms should add a substantial amount of snow and water and help us determine the strength of our deeply buried weak layers. In the meantime, let's reflect on how persistent weak layers work and remember that all I need to do is find a shallow, weak portion of the snowpack, perhaps around a rock or bush that I can't see underneath the snow, collapse the slope (whoomph), and now I'm staring down the barrel of a dangerous avalanche. What I don't know... where exactly these weak points exist in the snowpack, but steep rocky slopes are certainly high on the suspect terrain list and should be avoided today.
It all looks white and even until we see what's underneath the snow we're riding on-
The last avalanche noted breaking to weak snow near the ground was about a week ago. While getting harder to initiate, the natural slide in the image above was most likely triggered by cornice fall and fits the notion of avalanches breaking to the ground once a trigger finds a weak, shallow portion of snowpack, generally in steep, rocky terrain.
Additional Information
The big news is the winds. Southerly winds blow into the 60's and 70's along the high ridges as a wet, warm storm system moves through the area today. High temperatures rise into the mid 30's, and we can expect heavy snow developing in the next couple of hours. Snow tapers off tonight with totals in the 12" range a good bet. The next storm system to impact the area comes Friday.
General Announcements
The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Thursday March 7th, 2019.
If you're getting out and about, please let me know what you're seeing especially if you see or trigger and avalanche. I can be reached at [email protected] or 801-231-2170
It's also a good time to set up one of our very popular avalanche awareness classes. Reach out to me and I'll make it happen.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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