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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
In mid and upper elevation terrain, at and above treeline, you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass and particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect. Any avalanche that breaks into deeper buried weak layers near the ground will result in a deep, dangerous slide.
Lose some elevation and you lose much of the problem. Safer riding alternatives exist on lower angle, mid and lower elevation, wind sheltered slopes with no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding. In terrain with these characteristics you'll find generally LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The accident reports for the four avalanche fatalities are all finalized with some first-hand accounts and worth reading. We all have something to learn so that we can get home safely to our loved ones.
Jan 18 Electric Lake Accident (Skyline area)
Jan 25 Laurel Peak Accident (Moab area)
Feb 7 Circleville Mtn Accident (Southwest area near Beaver, UT)
Feb 9 Chalk Creek Accident (Western Uintas)
Many thanks to these fine gentlemen for helping to install our Beacon Basin on the north end of the Nobletts parking lot. While you're in the hood and waiting for your partner or group, you can keep warm and test your avalanche beacon rescue skills at the same time.... your partners will be stoked.
Weather and Snow
High, thin clouds drift over the region this morning and temperatures are in the low teens. No new snow in the past 24 hours and west-southwest winds blow 15-20 mph along the high ridges. Get after it before the wind does.... the eastern front is fat and white and riding conditions are about as good as they get.
Above is hourly data from Trial Lake (9,945') and Windy Peak (10,662'). To view more regional weather stations click here.
JG was in Upper Weber Canyon yesterday and reports good stability and excellent riding conditions on the north half of the compass. More on his travels here.
Dang.... the south half of the compass did take on heat and will have a thin sun-crust this morning.
Recent Avalanches
In wind sheltered terrain, JG found the new snow reactive to his additional weight on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass and they stacked up more snow than you might expect. The good news is, this type of avalanche problem is straight-forward and predictably breaks at or below your skis, board, or sled. In addition, they are easy to manage with terrain management.
Meanwhile... I was in the wind zone near Double Hill and found shallow, fresh wind slabs along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges.
Recent trip reports and avy activity found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We are trending in the right direction and recent snowpack stability tests suggest we are turning the corner.
So here's what I know... in most terrain the snowpack is becoming thick and strong, and deep dangerous avalanches are becoming harder to trigger.
I also know that all I need to do is find a shallow, weak portion of the snowpack, perhaps around a rock or bush that I can't see underneath the snow, collapse the slope (whoomph), and now I'm staring down the barrel of a dangerous avalanche. In addition, I know first hand from crawling around recent big avalanches that the common theme is they've occurred on steep, rocky, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass, along with slopes that avalanched earlier this season and have a shallow snowpack.
What I don't know... where exactly these weak points exist in the snowpack and whether or not I can trigger something that breaks to the ground.
In this business, one of the keys to longevity is embracing the concept of avoiding bulls-eye terrain where unmanageable avalanche dragons live. So if there's uncertainty in the snowpack... I simply avoid the unknowns.
So for today, I know I can still have a great day of riding safely by managing my terrain choices and steering away from steep, rocky slopes.
It all looks white and even until we see what's underneath the snow we're riding on-
The last avalanche noted breaking to weak snow near the ground was about a week ago. While getting harder to initiate, the natural slide in the image above was most likely triggered by cornice fall and fits the notion of avalanches breaking to the ground once a trigger finds a weak, shallow portion of snowpack, generally in steep, rocky terrain.
Here's what our weak snow near the ground looks like and Cody's take... "4-6 mm Depth Hoar crystals found in our deep snowpit in the Humpy Creek drainage. Hard to trust a depth hoar snowpack even when buried this deep..."
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds ramped up early yesterday and had no problem finding an abundance of light density to blow around and form fresh drifts sensitive to our additional weight. With a storm on our doorstep and winds forecast to ramp up throughout the day, I expect today's drifts will become more widespread, more connected, and by late in the day, may deeper than you might expect. As the day wares on remember to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.
And don't forget-
Cornices are ginormous and may break back further than you might expect. You definitely wanna give these large, unpredictable pieces of snow a wide berth and not ruin someones day below by inadvertently knocking a boxcar size piece of snow down on them
Additional Information
A series of mild storms is lined up to impact the region beginning tonight. Look for increasing clouds and wind as the day progresses. Temperatures rise into the 30's and west and southwest winds blow in the 40's and 50's by about dinnertime. Snow begins late tonight and we should have a few inches of high density overnight with a good shot of snow developing on Wednesday. A foot looks like a good bet.
General Announcements
The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Wednesday March 6th, 2019.
If you're getting out and about, please let me know what you're seeing especially if you see or trigger and avalanche. I can be reached at [email protected] or 801-231-2170
It's also a good time to set up one of our very popular avalanche awareness classes. Reach out to me and I'll make it happen.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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