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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Monday, March 4, 2019
In mid and upper elevation terrain, at and above treeline, you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass and particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect. Any avalanche that breaks into deeper buried weak layers near the ground will result in a deep, dangerous slide.
Lose some elevation and you lose much of the problem. Safer riding alternatives exist on lower angle, mid and lower elevation, wind sheltered slopes with no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding. In terrain with these characteristics you'll find generally LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The accident reports for the four avalanche fatalities are all finalized with some first-hand accounts and worth reading. We all have something to learn so that we can get home safely to our loved ones.
Jan 18 Electric Lake Accident (Skyline area)
Jan 25 Laurel Peak Accident (Moab area)
Feb 7 Circleville Mtn Accident (Southwest area near Beaver, UT)
Feb 9 Chalk Creek Accident (Western Uintas)
Many thanks to these fine gentlemen for helping to install our Beacon Basin on the north end of the Nobletts parking lot. While you're in the hood and waiting for your partner or group, you can keep warm and test your avalanche beacon rescue skills at the same time.... your partners will be stoked.
Weather and Snow
The recent trend of under-forecast storms, over-delivered an evenly distributed 8" of medium density, surfy snow across the range, providing amazing riding conditions Sunday. Skies began clearing late last night, current temperatures are in the single digits, and a few high clouds drift through the region this morning. West and southwest winds remained unusually light the past 24 hours, blowing just 10-20 mph along the high ridges.
Above is hourly data from Trial Lake (9,945') and Windy Peak (10,662'). To view more regional weather stations click here.
JG was near Hoyt Peak and has encouraging news.... "Just out for a quick, afternoon cruise. The little dribbler storms during the week and last nights over-producer have freshened up the skiing making for great riding conditions. Spent a little time looking at the snow and the last week and a half have really made a difference in the snowpack's stability. Definitely feeling like we've made a swing in the right direction in overall stability. No results in column and extended colum tests. It's still easy to identify weak layers in the pack but they seem strong and weren't responding to stability tests. "
More on his travels here.
Recent Avalanches
Other than new snow instabilities, like the pocket Michael J found sensitive to his additional weight Saturday, no significant avalanche activity to report.
Recent trip reports and avy activity found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We are trending in the right direction and recent snowpack stability tests suggest we are turning the corner.
So here's what I know... in most terrain the snowpack is becoming thick and strong, and deep dangerous avalanches are becoming harder to trigger.
I also know that all I need to do is find a shallow, weak portion of the snowpack, perhaps around a rock or bush that I can't see underneath the snow, collapse the slope (whoomph), and now I'm staring down the barrel of a dangerous avalanche. In addition, I know first hand from crawling around recent big avalanches that the common theme is they've occurred on steep, rocky, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass, along with slopes that avalanched earlier this season and have a shallow snowpack.
What I don't know... where exactly these weak points exist in the snowpack and whether or not I can trigger something that breaks to the ground.
In this business, one of the keys to longevity is embracing the concept of avoiding bulls-eye terrain where unmanageable avalanche dragons live. So if there's uncertainty in the snowpack... I simply avoid the unknowns.
So for today, I know I can still have a great day of riding safely by managing my terrain choices and steering away from steep, rocky slopes.
It all looks white and even until we see what's underneath the snow we're riding on-
We caught sight of this avalanche last Thursday. While getting harder to initiate, the natural slide in the image above was most likely triggered by cornice fall and fits the notion of avalanches breaking to the ground once a trigger finds a weak, shallow portion of snowpack, generally in steep, rocky terrain.
Here's what our weak snow near the ground looks like and Cody's take... "4-6 mm Depth Hoar crystals found in our deep snowpit in the Humpy Creek drainage. Hard to trust a depth hoar snowpack even when buried this deep..."
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Surprisingly, winds have been unusually light and our forecast calls for more of the same today. However, don't let your guard down. Remember- the Uinta's are a big range and it never ceases to amaze me how even just a little bit of wind can find snow, channel it through terrain features, and form fresh drifts sensitive to our additional weight. While a few wind drifts may have formed along the leeward side of mid and upper elevation ridges, you might find a rogue drift or two around a terrain feature like a chute or gully wall. In any case, today you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.
And don't forget-
Cornices are ginormous and may break back further than you might expect. You definitely wanna give these large, unpredictable pieces of snow a wide berth and not ruin someones day below by inadvertently knocking a boxcar size piece of snow down on them
Additional Information
A break in the action takes hold over the region and we should see partly cloudy skies, light winds, and temperatures rising into the low 30's. About the same for much of Tuesday and then a mild storm system brings periods of heavy, wet snow from Wednesday through Friday, along with periods of stronger winds.
General Announcements
The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Tuesday March 5th, 2019.
If you're getting out and about, please let me know what you're seeing especially if you see or trigger and avalanche. I can be reached at [email protected] or 801-231-2170
It's also a good time to set up one of our very popular avalanche awareness classes. Reach out to me and I'll make it happen.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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