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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Wednesday morning, January 31, 2024
A mid-sized parrot on my shoulder tells me... a series of storm systems on our door step changes the avy danger equation later this week-
For today, MODERATE avalanche danger as strong sunshine, coupled with continued warm temps may further irritate the mid December drought layer, now buried deep in the snowpack. Becoming more the exception then the rule, human triggered avalanches are still POSSIBLE, particularly on steep, rocky slopes facing the north half of the compass
In addition, MODERATE avalanche danger is found on steep sunny slopes, where damp, loose avalanches come to life, especially during the heat of the day.
Note to self... this isn't your generic, run-of-the-mill MODERATE avy danger. In fact, it takes some thinking with intent, particularly if I'm stepping into bigger terrain. Even though the odds of triggering a slide have decreased, the consequences remain the same... catastrophic if I make the wrong call. I'm aiming for terrain with a deeper snowpack and a clean runout zone, free of trauma inducing baseball bats like trees and rocks that'll instantly ruin my day if I screw up.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
"Miraculously, I came out on top of the snow that day over 30 years ago. I knew I was lucky to be alive, and I never wanted to experience that again...And when the avalanche problem type is a persistent weak layer, I’ll never say the danger is “only” moderate."
Read an excellent blog by Moab Forecaster, Eric Trenbeath about a moderate danger with a persistent weak layer.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- Blue days, all of them gone... Nothin' but blue skies from now on... enjoy it while you can. Not a cloud in sight this morning and temperatures register in the mid and upper 20's. After a rather long windless run, a breeze from the southeast blows 15-25 mph along the high peaks.
Forecast- The warm before the storm. Look for mostly sunny skies and temperatures soaring into the 40's. Winds from the south ramp up throughout the day, blowing into the 40's and 50's by dinnertime. High pressure shifts east later today, allowing the first in a series of storms to slide into the area Thursday.
Futurecast- A Pacific Storm system is on tap for the region and it should start snowing by about mid morning Thursday. Our good friends and partners at the Salt Lake NWS have issued a Winter Weather Advisory. I think the south half of the range does alright with the initial wave of moisture, but the North Slope gets invited to the party later in the day. It's a multi-day storm tapping into a remnant Atmospheric River (AR) and that should stack up a solid amount of snow and water. The Uintas light up with AR's and I'll have more refined deets for Thursday's update, but I'm cautiously optimistic we're gonna do well
Snow conditions - Warm temps and strong sunshine have had their way with many aspects, especially down low where the sunny slopes and hard and crusty. But gain some elevation, swing over to the north half of the compass and you'll be rewarded with soft, creamy snow on a go-anywhere base.
With decades of avy experience, all knowing snow-pro Ted Scroggin reports a surprisingly strong snow pack on the east side of the range. Yesterday, Ted was near Elizabeth Pass and has a great trip report found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
No recent significant Uinta avy activity to report.
Read more Uinta observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I'm beginning to slowly step into bigger terrain, but I'm nibbling at the edges... not center-punching or gobbling at the gut.
You'd really have to go out of your way to trigger a slide that breaks to older layers of snow today, but sunny skies, coupled with shallow pow on a go-anywhere base, tend to steer us into bigger terrain, especially slopes in the alpine. And while so much of the range avalanched during the mid January storm cycle, a few slopes remain intact, just waiting for us to roll along and tickle the right spot, and collapse the pack, often around a rock or bush barely hidden under the snow.
The good news is... the odds of triggering a slide on a persistent weak layer have decreased.
The less than ideal news is... it's not like lightning striking out of nowhere and it's not completely zero.
If you choose to enter avalanche terrain and ride steep slopes, stack the odds in your favor. Avoid areas of thinner snow near rocks (sometimes hard to do), make sure the runout zone is free of trauma-inducing trees and rocks, and make sure your partners watch you from a safe area.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Snow-pros and Inspired Summit Adventure backcountry guides extraordinaire, but more important... incredible humans, Shaun Raskin and Joey Manship stomped around the big alpine terrain in the Bald Mountain environs Monday and spotted this damp slide peeling out of the hanging snowfields of Mount Agassiz. They've got an awesome trip report detailing their travels found HERE.
Keep an eye to the sky when you're traveling under the steep sunny slopes of Reids Peak, Bald Mountain, or Hayden Peak, especially as the day heats up. You could easily get clobbered by snow cascading off the high snow fields above.
Additional Information
Most SNOTEL sites have about average water content and snow now. Below is a graph from the Trial Lake SNOTEL showing the 30 year median (green line) and this year's precipitation (black line).
The Uinta weather station network was upgraded this summer and all that real-time info is found HERE. Simply click on "western Uinta" tab and then "weather stations" tab.
We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. So... if you see something, say something. You can reach me directly at [email protected] or 801-231-2170.
Also, if you're looking for more avy education opportunities for yourself, your crew, or your club please don't hesitate to reach out to me and we'll find a presentation, class, or clinic for ya!
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
Issued at 0400 on Wednesday, January 31st this forecast will be updated by 0700 Thursday, February 1st, 2024.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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