Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion for
Sunday, January 31, 2021
The avalanche danger is HIGH on upper elevation aspects facing northwest, through north, and southeast. Upper elevation aspects facing south, southwest, and west - and mid-elevation aspects facing northwest, through the north, through southeast- have a CONSIDERABLE danger. Additional new snow and recent strong southerly winds have overloaded the snowpack on many slopes at the mid and upper elevations. Any natural or human-triggered avalanche can be 2-4' deep, over a few hundred feet wide, and likely unsurvivable.
TRAVELING IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

If you're leaving a resort boundary through an exit point, you are stepping into CONSIDERABLE or HIGH avalanche danger.
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Special Avalanche Bulletin
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST MONDAY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...
THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS CONSIDERABLE TO HIGH IN MANY AREAS.
CONDITIONS ARE PERFECT FOR AVALANCHE ACCIDENTS THIS WEEKEND. DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. AVALANCHES COULD BE LARGE, VERY DANGEROUS, UNEXPECTED, AND PERHAPS DEADLY.
Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
After picking up a final few inches of snow yesterday morning, the storm tapered off and high pressure began to build over the area. This morning, under clear skies we have an inversion in the mountains with temperatures ranging from the single digits to mid-teens F. Winds are almost dead calm, averaging below 10 mph with gusts near 15 mph at the highest ridgelines.
Today, high pressure will continue to build bringing sunny skies in the morning, and increasing cloud cover in the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the low 30s F, and southerly winds will remain calm with gusts below 30 mph at the upper ridgelines.

The final rough snow totals below:
Upper LCC: 15.5"-21" new snow (1.16 "-1.15" water)
Upper BCC: 12"-20" new snow (0.88"-1.20" water)
Park City Ridge: 10"-14" new snow (0.80"-1.1" water)
Provo Mountains: 10"-12" new snow (1.0"-1.51" water)
Ogden Mountains: 12.5"-24" new snow (0.95"- 2.13" water)

Week in Review: This past week has been active with lots of (1) snow, (2) wind, and (3) avalanches. Catch up by reading our latest Week in Review.
Recent Avalanches
With great sadness, the Utah Avalanche Center reports there has been an avalanche accident off of Squaretop Peak, located on the Park City Ridgeline. The preliminary information can be found HERE. Because of the extreme danger of the area, the rescue is ongoing and will continue this morning.
Following the rescue operations, UAC Staff, along with PCMR Ski Patrol, will investigate the accident and will have the full report available in a couple of days.

Yesterday was an extremely active day in the backcountry, as of 5:00 AM this morning 17 avalanches were reported in the backcountry, including multiple catches and carries and close calls. Ski patrols also reported large class 2 avalanches triggered with explosives. A few avalanches of note:
  • Main Gobblers - Northwest Aspect - 10,000 - Two skiers were caught, carried, and partially buried in an avalanche that broke 3-4' deep and 350' wide, Main Gobblers ran about 2000' vertical feet. The party sustained injuries but was able to self extract to where they were met by Search and Rescue.
  • Upper Millcreek - Southeast Aspect - 9,200' - A skier was caught, carried, and partially buried in an avalanche that broke 2' deep and 80' wide. The rider pulled their airbag was able to stay on top of the debris and was extracted by their partners.
  • West Porter Fork - East Aspect - 9,600' - A natural avalanche that broke 3' feet deep and 500' wide - A storm slab, likely triggered by cornice fall that stepped down more deeply into the weak faceted snow.
Photo of the Main Gobblers avalanche.
Photo of West Porter Fork avalanche. (A. Bellomy)
The avalanche list is growing, and as always, you can find all observations and recent avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Yesterday there were close to 20 avalanches reported in the backcountry. The combination of strong winds and the additional weight from the new snow has stressed our weak and faceted snowpack beyond its breaking point.
The snowpack is starting to show its cards and is now producing deep and dangerous avalanches that are breaking 2'-4' deep and hundreds of feet wide. If the area has any signs of wind loading from late last week, we could see even deeper avalanches breaking, up to 5-10' deep, that initially fail in the wind drifted snow and step down into the weak faceted snow near the ground. Either way, these avalanches are likely to be unsurvivable.
Over the past two days, we've also stacked up 10"-20" of new snow across the range. Today, we could see a few soft slab avalanches that fail within the new storm snow. In my mind, this problem is just shadowing the true killer, which is the persistent weak layer. Any new snow avalanche triggered might be enough to step down into deeper weaker layers.
Bottom Line: Our snowpack is a junk show and shouldn't be messed with right now. There is no outsmarting this problem - avoidance is the answer. If you're heading out into the backcountry today, be sure to stick to terrain that's under 30° degrees in slope steepness with nothing steep above or adjacent to you. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance, and from below. Traveling in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended.
General Announcements
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.