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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer for
Sunday, March 17, 2019
The avalanche danger is MODERATE early this morning, but will rapidly increase to CONSIDERABLE for Wet Snow avalanches on the strongest sunlit slopes.
Travel advice is straight forward: when the snow becomes damp or wet where you are, get off of and out from under steep slopes. Wet sluffs that can carry and bury a person will be easy to trigger and natural avalanches will occur. Head to low angle terrain and avoid run out zones like the bottom of gullies.
On mid and upper elevation slopes facing northwest through southeasterly, there is still a chance of triggering a deeper, wider slide failing on old, faceted snow layers, and the avalanche danger is a solid MODERATE. Careful route finding and snowpack evaluation is necessary for travel in this terrain.
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Weather and Snow
Under clear skies, the overnight temperatures dropped below freezing across the mountains giving us a sold re-freeze of the snow surface. Current upper elevation thermometers are in the mid 20's while the lower canyon drainages are in the mid teens °F. Winds are light (5-10 mph) from the west-south-west.
The strong spring sun has destroyed all the powder except for the steep, upper elevation, north (shady) facing slopes. After three days of melt-freeze it may be possible to find pseudo corn snow on lower angled upper/mid elevation southerly slopes this morning as the sun heats the snow surface.
Highs today will be near 40 at 8,800’ and the low 30s at 10,000’. Westerly winds will remain calm (5-10 mph) through the day. The next chance for new snow will begin on Wednesday. Details are a bit sketchy as some models are suggesting it goes a bit too far south of us.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, backcountry riders we able to initiate loose wet snow avalanches on many of the sunny aspects as well as mid and lower elevation northerly slopes. Most of these start beneath your skis, board, or sled and fan out, running into the lower angled terrain before stopping. However, late in the afternoon avalanche professional John Woodruff from the Utah Department of Transportation captured many images of a natural wet slab cycle off the westerly side of the Provo massif. These avalanches were hundreds of feet wide running 1,000'-2,000' vertical feet down the hill, leaving behind massive piles of cement like debris (Photos below: UDOT).
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Melt-freeze cycles are what spring is all about. Each day the strong sunshine (short wave radiation) and warm temperatures heat the snowpack allowing the snow surface to become damp, moist, wet, and saturated. At night the temperatures drop and the long wave radiation is transmitted back into the atmosphere allowing the snow surface to freeze and become solid again. During the day, the strong sun loosens the bonds (essentially melts) between each of the grains at the snow surface and we start seeing natural loose wet snow avalanches due to gravity and the decreased strength in the snowpack.
Wet snow avalanches are very different than dry snow avalanches. Dry snow avalanches can move at speeds upwards of 40-80 mph and usually have a dust cloud from the dry cold powder. Wet snow avalanches move much slower 10-40 mph and they flow like concrete pouring out of a dump truck. Most accidents happen because of natural wet snow avalanches. However, if you overstay your welcome on a steep, sustained, sunny aspects and the snow becomes too wet, humans can easily cause the avalanche that catches and carries them.
Today’s Wet Snow avalanche activity should be taken seriously. As the day heats and the sun hits the slopes, it’s guaranteed the snow becomes wet, loose and sloppy. You will be able to trigger wet loose sluffs or slabs on steep sunny slopes and some natural wet snow slab avalanches might occur during the day today. Plan your exits so you're not coming out of steep canyon bottoms during the heat of the day.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Provo snowpack remains dangerous on some mid and upper elevation aspects, with a complexity that makes it difficult to identify patterns. Field reports from Tuesday indicated persistent weak layers are still reactive to stability tests, and this is enough for very experienced people to continue to provide a wide buffer of margin in this terrain. These are difficult and dangerous conditions to assess because to get into the upper elevation bowls, one must walk in/underneath many large slide paths.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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