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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees for
Saturday, March 16, 2019
The avalanche danger will rapidly increase to MODERATE for Wet Snow avalanches in almost all steep backcountry terrain. Travel advice is straight forward: when the snow becomes damp or wet where you are, get off of and out from under steep slopes. Wet sluffs will be easy to trigger and natural avalanches will occur. Head to low angle terrain and avoid run out zones like the bottom of gullies. The upper elevation terrain of Snake Creek and American Fork, which received more snow, could produce some of the larger sluffs.
On mid and upper elevation slopes facing northwest through southeasterly, there is still a chance of triggering a deeper, wider slide failing on old, faceted snow layers, and the avalanche danger is a solid MODERATE. Careful route finding and snowpack evaluation is necessary for travel in this terrain.
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Weather and Snow
The switch flipped, and spring is here - yesterday’s high-angle sun destroyed any remnants of powder on all but the steeper, shady upper elevation slopes, above about 9,000’. Elsewhere, you will find supportable and breakable crusts early, that will melt into sloppy, wet snow as the day heats up.
This morning, under clear skies, temperatures are in the mid twenties to 30 degrees at the mid elevations in the Provo area mountains, 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday morning. Where the cold air has pooled in the canyon bottoms, temperatures are in the teens. Highs today will be near 40 at 8,000’ and the upper 20s at 10,000’. Winds are calm, and should remain that way through the day. The next chance for snow isn’t until mid week.
Recent Avalanches
No new observations from the Provo area mountains yesterday. To the north, predictable wet loose sluffs were released naturally and by skiers, running 1000 to 2000' vertical in the steep terrain in Little Cottonwood.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With wet snow, it’s a balance - the initial shock of sun and heating on the dry, cold snow is over, so normally wet loose avalanche activity would decrease. But today’s 10 to 15 degree head start on heating will keep wet snow active.
Today’s Wet Snow avalanche activity is PREDICTABLE and AVOIDABLE. As the day heats and the sun hits the slopes, it’s guaranteed the snow become wet, loose and sloppy. You will be able to triggered wet loose sluffs on steep slopes and some natural wet snow avalanches will occur. The largest may be in the upper elevation terrain of Snake Creek and American Fork, which received much more snow than the rest of the Provo area mountains.
Avoidance: when the snow becomes wet, move off steep slopes to lower angle terrain. Be aware of what is above you, and avoid travel beneath steep slopes and gullies. Plan your exits carefully to avoid steep terrain at the mid and low elevations, especially gullies and drainages. Even small wet sluffs pack a punch, and can push you around or take you for a ride down slope or into trees. Start early and finish early.
With a multi-day “heat wave” in progress, roofs will shed their remaining snow and cornices will become more sensitive and avoid travel below glide cracks.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Provo snowpack remains dangerous on some mid and upper elevation aspects, with a complexity that makes it difficult to identify patterns. Field reports from Tuesday indicated persistent weak layers are still reactive to stability tests, and this is enough for very experienced people to continue to provide a wide buffer of margin in this terrain. These are difficult and dangerous conditions to assess - with a lot of variety from Cascade to Box Elder to Timp to the southern Wasatch Back (Snake Creek to Mill Canyon Peak).
Additional Information
Don’t forget your skin wax and scraper today!
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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