Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Saturday morning, March 15, 2025

There is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger in upper elevation northwest-north-east facing terrain where you are likely to trigger a new or wind-drifted snow avalanche that could be up to 2' deep and 150' wide.

The avalanche danger is MODERATE in other upper elevation and in mid-elevation terrain and LOW in the lower elevation terrain where it will be less likely to trigger a wind-drifted snow avalanche, but still possible to trigger a soft slab avalanche failing in the newest snow.

Look for and avoid areas of wind-drifted snow such as pillowy, rounded slopes, or ridgeline features with new cornices. Only expose one traveler at a time to steep slopes (greater than 30°) and practice good travel protocols being aware of who may be below you before working into steeper terrain.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Currently, under overcast skies it is snowing lightly. Temperatures are in the low 20's °F at most weather stations and winds are blowing from the west in the 20's gusting to the 30's MPH. Some weather stations at the highest ridgelines may be rimed and showing lower wind speeds. We have had anywhere from 3" to 6" of snow in the last 24-hours which brings storm totals to 12"-17" of snow and 1.25"-1.89" of water weight.

For today, under mostly cloudy skies look for temperatures to be 28-34°F. Winds will blow from the west-southwest at the lower ridgelines 15 gusting to 20 MPH and from the west-northwest 30 gusting to 40 MPH at the highest ridgelines. Look for 3"-6" of new snow with .30"- .50" of water during the day. There could be periods of increased snowfall rates of up to 1" an hour with the chance of lightning. If this were the case then some areas could hit the higher end of snowfall numbers if not go over.

The trick in March is to get the new snow before the sun does regardless of air temperatures.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday, we had no reports of avalanches from the Provo Forecast Region. On Lone Peak, the dividing line between Provo and Salt Lake, there were reports of shallow soft slabs and cracking 4"-8" deep in the newest snow.

Check out all recent avalanches and observations HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

There is new snow at all elevations that is primed for transport. While wind-drifted snow will be a bigger issue in the higher elevation terrain don't discount seeing shallow soft drifts in mid-elevation terrain. If you see cracking, feel collapsing, or see signs such as new cornices or pillowy wind loaded features then avoid traveling on or underneath these areas of wind-drifted snow.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Do not be surprised to see or trigger shallow new snow avalanches failing on density changes within the storm snow. These new snow avalanches may only be 4"-8" deep, but in steep terrain with a long vertical run this could entrain more than enough snow to bury a person.

With any hint of March sun even for a moment, regardless of air temperatures we could see wet loose rollerballs, roof slides, and form a crust on the snow surface. Yesterday there were reports of a slight crust on south and east facing aspects which may not have bonded well with last night's snow. Check out the new/old snow interfaces as you're traveling before committing to being under or traveling in steep avalanche terrain.

These are the kind of avalanches that may impact more than your group, so please be aware of who may be traveling below or above you while you're out and about.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The chance of triggering an avalanche failing on a deeper buried layer of facets near the ground is diminishing with time. The first layer of facets now buried near the ground is most likely to be triggered in thinner spots on northwest-north-east facing mid and upper-elevation aspects. The second persistent weak layer (PWL) is a thin dust layer that formed and was buried in early March and is now buried 2'-3' deep. This dusty layer will be easy to identify and recent test results have showed propagation becoming more difficult on this layer.

This most recent storm is great test of both of these layers and while I don't trust that these layers are gone, I think that we're turning the corner on this season of persistent weak layers.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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