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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Saturday morning, February 15, 2020
The avalanche danger is LOW. The two things to watch for today are (1) pockets of isolated wind slabs along upper elevation aspects facing north through east, and (2) slide-for-life conditions on steep, wind-scoured slopes that have a slick ice crust.
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Weather and Snow
Under mostly clear skies the mountain temperatures currently sit in the mid-teens to low 20's °F across the board. Winds have remained westerly and are blowing 10-20 mph with gusts into the low 30's across the exposed ridgelines.
As the day wears on, we will see increasing mid and high-level clouds as a warm tongue of moist air from Hawaii moves into the area. Winds will remain westerly and in the 10-20 mph range at the upper elevations. Later this evening, it will begin to snow starting around midnight and will last through the day Sunday. A cold front crosses the northern mountains Sunday evening and will we see a brief period of intense snowfall during the frontal passage. However, that will be short-lived as cold dry air follows in its wake. All in all, it will be snowy for about 24 hrs and we could see 10"-16" (0.75" - 1.25" water) of new snow by Monday morning.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported from the backcountry. Our Week in Review - where we highlight significant weather and avalanche events from this past week - is published HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
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Description
The avalanche danger is currently Low. Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. There are two things I would watch out for today:
1. Pockets of fresh wind slabs along upper leeward aspects facing north through east.
2. Slide for life conditions on steep, wind-scoured slopes where there is a hard rain/rime crust.
It is important to maintain good travel habits during periods of Low danger, this includes exposing one person at a time to avalanche terrain and watching one another from islands of safety.
Additional Information
LOOKING AHEAD:
In simple terms, slab avalanches require a slab of snow resting on top of a relatively weaker layer. Currently, there is about 2-4" of snow on top of a widespread rain/rime crust that formed late Friday, February 7. This snow at the surface is undergoing a process of faceting (becoming weaker) during this period of cold and clear weather and may provide the necessary weak layer. Snow and wind forecasted for later tonight and into tomorrow may create the slab on top. The rain/rime crust will provide an excellent bed surface for avalanches to run on. (The "Dickens Crust"? February 7 is Charles Dicken's birthday and this crust may prove to be the dickens!)
Photo: Mark Staples from the Mt Nebo Loop Road, highlighting the crust with low density snow on top. Be sure to check out his observation HERE.
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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