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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne for
Friday, December 16, 2022
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist! The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all upper-elevation aspects and mid and lower-elevation aspects facing northwest through north and east where triggering deadly avalanches is likely. The avalanche danger is MODERATE on west-south-southeast aspects where triggering avalanches is possible.
I do not recommend traveling on, below, or adjacent to slopes 30 degrees or steeper on aspects facing northwest through north and east - including low and mid elevations.
Provo Canyon ice climbs are also vulnerable to avalanches from starting zones a few thousand feet above the base of the ice climbs.
There were three serious avalanche accidents involving significant injuries this past week and I am fearful our luck has run out. Safer alternatives exist outside of avalanche terrain with excellent riding on low angled slopes.
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Special Avalanche Bulletin
DANGEROUS AND UNUSUAL AVALANCHE CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST WEEK HAS CREATED DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS AT ALL ELEVATIONS. DON'T BE LURED BY THE BEAUTIFUL SUNNY SKIES AND FRESH POWDER INTO THINKING AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE SAFE WHEN THEY ARE NOT.
DO NOT TRAVEL ON, UNDERNEATH, OR ADJACENT TO SLOPES 30 DEGREES OR STEEPER ON SLOPES FACING NORTHWEST, NORTH, NORTHEAST, AND EAST WHERE TRIGGERING LARGE AND DANGEROUS AVALANCHES IS LIKELY. THIS INCLUDES LOW-ELEVATION FOOTHILLS WHERE AVALANCHES CAN OCCUR NOT FAR FROM PARKING AREAS AND TRAILHEADS.
Weather and Snow
Temperatures this morning are in the single digits with partly-cloudy skies. Winds are from the northwest with gusts in the teens mph at mid-elevations and 20's mph at upper-most elevations.
Snowfall totals since Sunday night are 1 - 2.5' containing 1" - 1.5" of water.
For today, partly-cloudy skies with temperatures in the high single digits. Winds will be from the northwest with gusts in the teens at mid elevations and upper 20's mph at the upper elevations.
For this weekend, sunshine and cold temperatures with a chance for a return to unsettled weather by mid-week.
Although specific to the Salt Lake mountains, you can get caught up in significant weather and avalanche activity over this past week by reading our Week in Review.
Recent Avalanches
Drew has published a blog "Dangerous and Unusual Avalanche Conditions" describing the avalanche activity over this past week.
The were reports of sensitive wind drifts on Thursday, including a large natural avalanche in Snake Creek on an east aspect at 9,200'. The slope appeared to be wind-loaded from the sustained northwest winds on Thursday and estimated at several hundred feet wide and a crown 1-2' deep.
There were three serious avalanche accidents this past week with serious injuries with two that required rescues. The avalanches broke down over 2' deep into the layer of November facets. These avalanches occurred at low elevations below 8,000':
Friday, December 9 an avalanche accident on Santaquin Peak that failed in the persistent weak layer of faceted snow also involved serious injuries. The avalanche was 1-2' deep and 600' wide.
Further north in the Salt Lake mountains:
Tuesday - Pink Pine Ridge 7,800' North-facing 2-3' deep, 60' wide. Read the preliminary report. UAC staff visited the area on Wednesday, but due to avalanche danger, chose not to approach the actual avalanche:
Wednesday- Thomas Fork in Neffs Canyon 7,200' North-facing 2' deep 200' wide. Read the preliminary report.
Aerial image of the Neff's Canyon crown and burial site.
During some clearing Wednesday afternoon, there was evidence of a natural avalanche cycle earlier in the storm where most of these avalanches failed either within the new snow or deeper in the persistent weak layer. These included:
  • Dry Canyon bowl - west side of Timp near Everest Ridge - Upper elevation SE facing terrain - failed 1000' wide
  • Middle Finger - above Sundance into Dry Lakes - 9500' - ENE facing terrain
  • Slide Canyon - Provo Canyon - Aspect and Elevation unknown
  • Bunnell's Ridge - White Limbo to 1st bench - Upper elevation ENE facing terrain
Check out all the avalanches HERE and if you see an avalanche, please report it.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There is weak, sugary faceted snow (a persistent weak layer, or PWL) on almost all aspects and elevations throughout the Wasatch Range. This PWL has been buried by one to three eet of storm snow and wind-drifted snow which has created dangerous avalanche conditions, with three serious avalanche accidents this past week. This PWL is especially dangerous on aspects facing northwest through north and east - especially at low and mid elevations - where triggering avalanches is likely.
Although avalanches involving this PWL are less likely on solar aspects facing west through south, there is too much uncertainty given the amount of snow we have received this past week and avalanches failing in this PWL are still possible.
I will not go anywhere close to a slope approaching 30 degrees or steeper on aspects facing west through north and east at any elevation. Fortunately, as this week's snowfall settles out, there is fantastic riding and travel conditions on low-angled slopes less than 30 degrees in steepness.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Northwest winds Thursday and overnight into Friday morning have had plenty of low-density snow to blow around and you are likely to find sensitive slabs of wind-drifted snow at the upper elevations. The avalanche in Snake Creek on Thursday likely failed due to recent wind loading and there were other reports of sensitive wind drifts from Thursday.
Any wind slab avalanche that you trigger has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers in the snowpack, creating a very large and dangerous avalanche.
Look for evidence of fresh drifts and wind slabs that look wavy, rounded, smooth, and pillowy, and avoid those slopes. Signs of sensitive wind-drifted snow include cracking (photo Engel).
Although any new snow instabilities have likely settled out, long-running sluffs are still possible in the cold, dry snow.
Additional Information
Mark Staples has also written a season summary HERE.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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