UDOT PLANNED AVALANCHE CLOSURES!!

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Sunday, February 17, 2019
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes, and human triggered avalanches are likely. On slopes that face W-N-SE, the new snow load has also increased the danger for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a buried, persistent weak layer. Most low elevation, and south facing terrain has a MODERATE danger. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills, and know how to avoid steep, wind drifted terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The latest UAC Podcast was just released: The Message and the Messengers - A Conversation with Alex Hamlin. In this podcast forecaster Drew Hardesty sits down with Alex Hamlin. For over fifteen years, Alex Hamlin has worked at the intersection of storytelling and outdoor sport, with experience at magazines, global retail brands and creative agencies. In the conversation, they talk about the psychology behind marketing (and influencing behavior change), with a particular eye toward marketing safety.
It's been a deadly month or so in Utah with four avalanche fatalities. The accident reports are all finalized with some first-hand accounts, and are all worth reading. We all have something to learn so that we can get home safely to our loved ones.
Jan 18 Electric Lake Accident (Skyline area)
Jan 25 Laurel Peak Accident (Moab area)
Feb 7 Circleville Mtn Accident (Southwest area near Beaver, UT)
Feb 9 Chalk Creek Accident (Western Uintas)
Weather and Snow
Skies are mostly clear this morning, and temps have plummeted into the single digits, but the big story is the lack of wind! Pre Laurel is still down this morning but 700 mb charts (10,000'), and surrounding stations indicate light to moderate WSW winds. Today look for increasing clouds as the next storm system approaches our area. Southerly winds will continue to be mostly light, and daytime highs will be in the mid teens. The approaching system looks like it will provide snowy conditions from tonight through Tuesday with 8"-12" of accumulation. Unsettled weather continues through the week with possibly another storm on Friday.
Most backcountry travelers have been staying below treeline due to the spate of strong winds over the past several days. Reports there are of pretty good turning and riding conditions, though somewhat variable due to the inverted nature of the most recent snow. Above treeline, winds have worked over the snow surface, scouring exposed southerly aspects and drifting north facing slopes. A wind shift to the NW yesterday has also likely affected exposed northerly aspects. Bottom line, as it has been for weeks, is stick to low angle, wind sheltered terrain for the best and safest conditions. Check out this report from yesterday from Charlie Ramser.

New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifted snow continues to be our primary concern. The most recent snow has blown into deep, dense drifts along upper elevation ridge crests, and even down into mid elevations, primarily on slopes that face NW-N-E. But a shift in wind direction yesterday has also deposited snow on to southerly aspects at upper elevations. Avoid slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The most recent snow load will be a good test for buried persistent weak layers in the snowpack. Hopefully I and others will have some visibility at some point to see if there has been any recent, deep, avalanche activity. As of yet, I haven't heard of any. Our primary layer of concern continues to be the early December snow that has turned into weak, sugary facets on top of the October crust. Where the snowpack is deepest, this layer is mostly non-reactive. Where the pack is shallow and weak, alarming results occasionally pop up. I think we are rounding the bend, but at this point, I'm still going to assume that deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches, failing on a buried persistent weak layer are still possible.
Dave Garcia's pit profile from Wednesday. Our most problematic layer continues to be December facets at around 70 cms. For more details see his observation.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.