Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Monday, February 18, 2019
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes, and human triggered avalanches are likely. On slopes that face W-N-SE, the new snow load has also increased the danger for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a buried, persistent weak layer. Most low elevation, and south facing terrain has a MODERATE danger. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills, and know how to avoid steep, wind drifted terrain.
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Special Announcements
The latest UAC Podcast was just released: The Message and the Messengers - A Conversation with Alex Hamlin. In this podcast forecaster Drew Hardesty sits down with Alex Hamlin. For over fifteen years, Alex Hamlin has worked at the intersection of storytelling and outdoor sport, with experience at magazines, global retail brands and creative agencies. In the conversation, they talk about the psychology behind marketing (and influencing behavior change), with a particular eye toward marketing safety.
It's been a deadly month or so in Utah with four avalanche fatalities. The accident reports are all finalized with some first-hand accounts, and are all worth reading. We all have something to learn so that we can get home safely to our loved ones.
Jan 18 Electric Lake Accident (Skyline area)
Jan 25 Laurel Peak Accident (Moab area)
Feb 7 Circleville Mtn Accident (Southwest area near Beaver, UT)
Feb 9 Chalk Creek Accident (Western Uintas)
Weather and Snow
Well it seems to happen at least once a year though I've never seen it quite this extreme. Moab/Spanish Valley received 4"-8" of snow between 5:30 and 8:30 p.m. last night while the mountains only picked up 2". Sorry mountain bikers. At least winds are well behaved averaging 15-20 mph from the SE. Temps continue to be well below normal and are in the single digits at 10,000'. A broad trough is stretching across much of the West. Through Tuesday, a series of shortwaves will eject across the 4 Corners region bringing us periods of snow. My confidence in forecasted totals over the next few days is not very high but we could see 3"-5" today and another 3"-5" tonight.
The good news is that snow over the past week has really piled up with more than two feet at 3" water content. Base depth in Gold Basin is 72". Sledding around on the east side of the range yesterday we found very deep powder in sheltered terrain, well below treeline. Above treeline, winds over the past week have scoured exposed surfaces and drifted snow on to leeward slopes. Travis Nauman and company were out yesterday and sent in this observation. He detailed some interesting things about the snowpack which I'll discuss below.

New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Recent Avalanches
I and others, have finally been able to get a look at things under partly sunny skies the past couple of days. Avalanche activity from last week's storm cycle appears to be mainly isolated wind slabs within the most recent snow. The deepest slide I saw came out of a steep, rocky, north facing pocket at around 11,000' just east of Colorado Bowl. I saw it from a distance, but it looked deep enough to have involved a persistent weak layer.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifted snow continues to be our primary concern. The most recent snow has blown into deep, dense drifts along upper elevation ridge crests, and even down into mid elevations, primarily on slopes that face NW-N-E. Shift wind directions have also deposited snow on to southerly aspects at upper elevations, and we now have a myriad of old and new wind slabs. Avoid slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snow load from last week was a pretty good test for the snowpack, and the lack of natural activity involving persistent weak layers indicates that the pack is gaining strength. Unfortunately, layers do still exist, and now it's becoming a bit more like rolling the dice. In addition to our early December faceted layer, other weak layers are turning up higher in the snowpack, and they aren't just confined to northerly aspects. Pro observer Travis Nauman turned back from an upper elevation SE facing slope after his ECT produced propagation on several interfaces. See his observation for more details. The bottom line is you will have to do a slope by slope analysis before considering terrain steeper than 35 degrees.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.