Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains | utahavalanchecenter.org

Avalanche Advisory

Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains	Issued by Drew Hardesty for Saturday - February 3, 2018 - 6:53am

bottom line

Most terrain has a LOW avalanche danger. Isolated areas of MODERATE danger, however, exist on northwest to east facing slopes above about 9000'. In this terrain, human triggered avalanches 1-2+' deep are possible. Additionally, shallow pockets of soft and hard wind slab are littered across the landscape, but most problematic in high consequence terrain. Lastly, damp push-alanches are possible in steep low to mid-elevation sheltered slopes that have remained warm for the past several days.

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current conditions

Skies are overcast with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. West to northwest winds are blowing 25-30mph with gusts to 45. The highest wind stations along the Ogden skyline have hourly averages of 40-45mph. Snow depths are 25-35" along the Ogden skyline while areas east of the mountain valleys have 25-35". Significant wind, sun and heat damage has taken its toll on the snowpack. For coverage, see Paige and Kory's photos below.

There is snow up high at least on N and E aspects.

recent activity

Minor damp push-alanches reported in steep terrain owing to the very warm tempratures and overcast skies. Recent snow and weather observations below -

02/2/2018 Observation: Monte Cristo Ogden region Staples and Meisenheimer

01/31/2018 Observation: Cutler Ridge Ogden region Pagnucco, Davis

01/29/2018 Observation: Monte Cristo Peak Ogden region Mark Staples

01/28/2018 Observation: Cutler Ridge Ogden region Derek DeBruin

01/28/2018 Observation: Cutler Ridge Ogden region Megan Brandt, Bill Brandt, Lee Fortin

01/27/2018 Observation: Cutler Ridge Ogden region Bill Brandt

Avalanche Problem 1

type	aspect/elevation	characteristics
		LIKELIHOOD LIKELY UNLIKELY SIZE LARGE SMALL TREND INCREASING DANGER SAME DECREASING DANGER over the next 12 hours
description I was able to collapse and crack out a small test slope yesterday on a north facing piece of terrain at 9200'. It cracked out about 1' deep and 20' across. It wasn't particularly representative of most of our terrain and yet there it was: poor structure, additional wind loading, trigger. Collapse. The moderate to strong winds will add just a bit of extra stress to areas of poor structure. Our lingering persistent slab avalanche problem exists at elevations 8500' and above, on slopes facing northwest through east (with a particular emphasis on north through northeast.) Thinner snowpack areas are particularly suspect. As an outlier, surface hoar formed on the 22nd and buried on the 25th has been noted in the mountains east of Hunstsville and Eden (and in the southern end of the Logan zone) and has yet to be reactive to human weight or snow tests. This is a layer of concern. Any collapsing or cracking in this layering is a red flag. It'll be important to watch this layer and see if additional wind loading may provide additional stress in localized terrain.

type

aspect/elevation

characteristics

LIKELIHOOD

LIKELY

UNLIKELY

SIZE

LARGE

SMALL

TREND

INCREASING DANGER

SAME

DECREASING DANGER

over the next 12 hours

description

I was able to collapse and crack out a small test slope yesterday on a north facing piece of terrain at 9200'. It cracked out about 1' deep and 20' across. It wasn't particularly representative of most of our terrain and yet there it was: poor structure, additional wind loading, trigger. Collapse. The moderate to strong winds will add just a bit of extra stress to areas of poor structure. Our lingering persistent slab avalanche problem exists at elevations 8500' and above, on slopes facing northwest through east (with a particular emphasis on north through northeast.) Thinner snowpack areas are particularly suspect.

As an outlier, surface hoar formed on the 22nd and buried on the 25th has been noted in the mountains east of Hunstsville and Eden (and in the southern end of the Logan zone) and has yet to be reactive to human weight or snow tests. This is a layer of concern. Any collapsing or cracking in this layering is a red flag. It'll be important to watch this layer and see if additional wind loading may provide additional stress in localized terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2

type	aspect/elevation	characteristics
		LIKELIHOOD LIKELY UNLIKELY SIZE LARGE SMALL TREND INCREASING DANGER SAME DECREASING DANGER over the next 24 hours
description Little snow is available for transport due to the recent warm temps, but a few new wind slabs might form at the highest elevations, especially on northerly through easterly facing slopes. The drifts are likely sitting on dry snow and thin rime crusts and can be triggered by a person on steep slopes. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds are expected to continue throughout the day so keep an eye out for areas with consistent transport, especially near ridgelines. Avoid steep slopes with freshly wind drifted snow.

weather

By and large, we'll be under a moderate to strong northwesterly flow for the rest of time eternal. Ok at least for the next week. Expect maybe a trace to an inch of snow this weekend with perhaps 3-6" on Monday/Tuesday. For today, we'll have overcast skies, west-northwest winds blowing 35+mph and temps in the upper 20s along the ridgelines.

I've cherry picked one of the weather models for expected total precipitation (in SWE - Snow Water Equivalent) through next Friday. As you can see, we're clearly on the dry side of the storm track while our neighbors to the north in Idaho, Wyoming and Montana eat our lunch. Road trip anyone?

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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