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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Wednesday morning, November 20, 2024
This most recent snow and wind was just enough to tip the scales in isolated terrain and it may be possible to trigger shallow soft slabs 10"-18" deep and up to 50' wide in upper elevation northerly facing terrain.
While these avalanches may not be enough to fully bury a rider, they are more than enough to rake someone through rocks and stumps.
Updates will follow as conditions warrant.
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Weather and Snow
Since Friday night, the Provo mountains have picked up 4-8" of snow with an estimated 0.5-0.8" of snow water equivalent. Timpanogos and the Cascade ridgeline look full winter. Coverage, however is 12-18" of new snow and wind drifts sitting uneasily over weak early season snow. This is a conditionally unstable snowpack waiting for more snow and wind for avalanche season to begin in full swing...which may begin late weekend. More on this in the coming days.
Currently, skies are clear with temps in the teens...rising into the 30s. Winds are moderate from the southwest.
Recent Avalanches
Two avalanches were triggered over the weekend in the Central Wasatch. While none of these avalanches were deep enough to bury a person, they would have been more than enough to cause injury had someone been caught in rocky terrain or washed over a cliff band.
The Tri-Chutes avalanche that was on a northwest aspect at 10,100' got my attention because of the collapses the party observed before they remotely triggered the avalanche (photo below). Another rider triggered an avalanche that failed on weak faceted snow on a north facing slope in Upper Silver Fork Canyon.(9800' north facing) While just north of the Provo Region, this is similar to what you may find at higher elevations throughout the Provo Area Mountains.
Above photo showing the fracture line from Silver Fork (photo credit: Chris D).
Check out all recent observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Continued incremental loading (more snow and water) has started to sneak up on us and the places that are holding the most snow (upper elevation northerly facing aspects) are the places that are most suspect right now. Dig down on any slope you intend to travel on to see if there is a slab of new or wind loaded snow with soft weak snow underneath before committing to ascend or descend a slope over 30° degrees. I still think the biggest concern is the summer surface and I am still sticking to lower angle ridges and slopes where I can't get enough speed to hit a rock or stump just under the surface. Some avalanche problems you may want to keep on your radar:
  • New Snow - The new snow may not bond well to the different crusts and weak faceted snow in our shallow snowpack. There will be a potential for sluffing and even shallow soft slabs of storm snow, especially during any period of higher precipitation
  • Wind-Drifted Snow - Blowing winds will cause snow to drift at the upper elevations. Watch for signs such as cracking in fresh wind slabs. Although these drifts should be small, you will want to avoid getting caught in one in steep, consequential terrain
Additional Information
Before traveling within one of the ski resort boundaries, check out Resort Uphill Policies.
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