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| Advisory: Ogden Area Mountains | Issued by Bruce Tremper for Friday - November 14, 2014 - 7:31am |
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bottom line Although we have a LOW avalanche danger today, it will almost certainly rise to at least MODERATE Saturday through the weekend on steep slopes above about 9,500' that face northwest, north and northeast. We'll update the avalanche forecast as the snow arrives and through the weekend.
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special announcement To those skinning uphill at resorts: it is your responsibility to know the resort policy on uphill travel. Some allow uphill travel and have guidelines, some don't. Contact the Ski Patrol at each resort for details. IMPORTANT: Before skinning at a resort under new snow conditions, check in with Ski Patrol. Resorts can restrict or cut off access if incompatible with control and grooming operations. Stay tuned for uphill closures over the next week or two as resorts get their terrain open. None of the mountain resorts are open for the season and you must treat the snow as a backcountry snowpack. It was exactly three years ago today - Nov 13, 2011 - when over 8 people were caught and carried in separate events in the unopened terrain in upper Little Cottonwood, resulting in a broken femur in upper Albion Basin and a tragic fatality in the Gad Valley. Here's Evelyn's forecast the following day. Powder Magazine is publishing an online video series called The Human Factor, which details the human factors involved in avalanche accidents. It features a number of avalanche experts on human factors including Utah Avalanche Center Director, Bruce Tremper. They will publish a new chapter each Tuesday for the next few weeks. Here is the link: http://www.powder.com/human-factor/ |
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current conditions The storm started out slow with just a couple inches yesterday but it should get more serious this afternoon through Saturday with 8 inches to a foot expected as a cold front arrives. The Ogden area mountains did not have much pre-existing snow, so most of this new snow should fall on bare ground or only think layers of old snow.
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| type | aspect/elevation | characteristics |
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LIKELIHOOD
 LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
 LARGE
SMALL
TREND
 INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
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description
In the Ogden area mountains, this new snow should fall mostly on bare ground or just thin layers of old snow, so it should bond fairly well to the rocks and not be much of a problem. But you may find a patch or two of old snow thick enough and slippery enough to produce avalanches when the weekend storm deposits snow on top of it, which will be similar conditions as the higher elevations in the Salt Lake or Provo area mountains where nearly a foot of old snow exists on the upper elevation slopes, which is much more of a problem. Be sure to check out the Salt Lake or Provo advisories before heading there.
Human factors will crescendo this weekend with the arrival of snow. Early season stoke, powder snow, Saturday, clearing skies, lots of people, ski areas closed and not yet doing any avalanche control--it's all adding up to an ugly recipe. It will encourage folks to bang themselves up on the rocks just under the blanket of new snow. Don't end your season before it even begins. In the meantime, check out our Education schedule here - we have a few free Avalanche Awareness classes coming up. We have a guest Blog post from long time observer Todd Leeds about getting ready for the early season - |
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weather We will continue with cloudy, foggy conditions today with light snow showers, but snow should increase this afternoon and overnight with the arrival of a cold front. We expect an additional 8 inches to a foot of new snow by mid day Saturday. The wind should pick up to 30, gusting to 40 overnight from the west and northwest and this should create some wind slabs in downwind terrain. Temperatures are warm today, 20-25 degrees but they should plummet to near zero by Saturday night. Skies should clear quickly by mid day Saturday. The extended forecast calls for clear with warming temperatures Monday through Wednesday. |
general announcements
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