Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Monday, January 17, 2022
Monday, January 17, 2022
There is an overall LOW avalanche danger on the Manti Skyline.
Keep in mind "LOW" danger doesn't mean "NO" danger.
If you are pushing the limits into lots of steep, radical northerly facing terrain, you are much more likely to find trouble.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
There was a very mild increase in wind speed on Sunday and it slowed right back down. I was kind of anticipating at least a little more wind along the higher ridges but, no dice. This is fine as riding conditions are holding up ok in many locations. Ridgetop temperatures have been staying fairly steady in the upper 20s and low 30s.
Mountain Weather
It'll be another day of mild weather with some thin clouds, ridgetop highs around 30 and light westerly wind. It looks like we'll see some clouds and a gradual cooling trend through the rest of the week. The latest model runs are actually hinting at some minor storm events starting around Saturday, the 22nd.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I continue to dig (or I should say, this weekend I made my avalanche class students dig!) down to the old weak snow at the base of the snowpack. In the majority of the places that I look at the old weak snow and I perform snow pit tests, I'm finding good overall stability. Occasionally I have been finding a location that doesn't look as good. I am fairly satisfied that in the majority of the terrain along the Skyline, the old weak snow is not going to pose much threat at this time.
Persistent Weak Layer Summary, 2021-2022:
There was a foot or more of snow that fell in October.
This snow melted away on many slopes but it stayed on northwest, north and northeast facing slopes above about 8500'.
The snow that stayed turned into a weak sugary layer during dry weather in November.
We saw a large amount of snow in December which landed on top of the weak snow from October.
The weak layer of sugary faceted snow collapsed and produced avalanches under the stress of the large storms.
The weak layer is still present but has gained some strength.
Snow pit tests are either non-reactive or are very stubborn to produce failure and full propagation.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.