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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Wednesday morning, December 28, 2022
Last nights firehose of moisture delivered a staggering one-two punch, weak layers are up against the ropes, and there's no reason to mess around with this one... any avalanche that breaks to weak, sugary, midpack snow will be deep and dangerous -
HIGH avalanche danger is found on all steep, mid and upper elevation slopes around the compass. The danger is most pronounced in the wind zone at and above treeline, in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Both natural and human triggered avalanches are VERY LIKELY. Don't get surprised... low elevation terrain is a player as well and you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger with human triggered avalanches LIKELY on steep, shady slopes.
Where to ride? Go from Polar to Solar... swing around to low and mid elevation terrain facing the south half of the compass with no overhead hazard (meaning, no steep slopes above or adjacent to where I'm traveling) and you'll be dealing with MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE but more predictable, mostly involving last nights new storm snow.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
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Didn’t get what you want for Christmas? Do your loved ones simply give you money for the holidays and say “Go buy something for yourself?” Support the UAC and get a great gift for yourself or your loved one at our Holiday Auction. The auction closes at 8:00 PM MT on January 2, 2023
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- Wow... what a storm! Natures firehose set its sights on the western Uinta's overnight and delivered some Herculean snow and water amounts. Trial Lake is the big winner with 24" of snow and close to 2" of H2O. Most other upper elevation zones clock in at 18" snow and 1.5" H2O and trailheads offer a solid foot of snow. In any case... huge numbers for us. Yesterday's cow-tipping southerly winds switched to the west and northwest right around midnight, decreased in velocity, and currently blow 15-25 mph along the high ridges. Temperatures fell lock step with the shift in wind direction and currently register in the teens and low 20's. Riding and conditions went from zero to hero overnight and yes... it's over-the-head and over-the-hood yo :)
Forecast- Snow showers linger over the region this morning and we might pick up a couple more inches of snow, but in general our storm is winding down. Both temperature and wind don't vary much from where we're at this morning, though overnight temperatures crash into the single digits.
Futurecast- A break for Thursday with another system hot on its heels to round out the work week.
Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanche activity since Christmas Eve, but the writing is on the wall. Both human triggered and natural avalanches display similar characteristics, revealing a failure in the midpack weakness which leads to avalanches gouging to the ground.
Recent avy activity and a slew of Uinta obs are HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's deceptively tricky today, avalanche avoidance is key, and here's why-
It'll be easy to think the fresh storm snow is the only avalanche game in town. But here's here's the deal... a very real and very dangerous avalanche dragon lurks deeper in our snowpack, but is concealed underneath all of last nights, light, fluffy snow. Now the curve ball... the snow underneath our skis, board, or track feels strong and bomber. But the rubber hits the road where strong snow rests on weaker snow, now buried deeply in the mid portion of our snowpack. The wild card in the entire deck is... the most likely place to trigger an avalanche is where the snowpack is slightly shallower, like lower down on the slope. The tricky party here is that once you knock the legs out from underneath and the avalanche breaks to the sugary, midpack persistent weak layer, the entire roof hanging above us... is gonna crash down on top of us! Avoid this setup and you avoid the avalanche dragon that will instantly ruin our day.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A 24 hour data dump from Windy Peak (10,661') illustrates where you're most likely to find a fresh, sensitive fresh drift.
Winds have been all over the map, there's no shortage of light snow available to blow around, and fresh drifts are gonna react to our additional weight. It's not quite as cut and dry as it seems because once initiated, a seemingly manageable wind drift may break to weaker layers of snow buried deeper in the snowpack, producing an avalanche that quickly gets out of hand. The key to riding safely is simply avoiding fat rounded pillows of snow, especially if they're sounding hollow like a drum.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Given the sheer amount of overnight storm snow, it'll be easy to trigger new snow avalanches on all steep slopes at all elevations. It'll be touchy this morning, but this type of instability settles out rather quickly.
Additional Information
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:42 on Wednesday December 28th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Thursday December 29th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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