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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Friday morning, December 30, 2022
Our snowpack is sketchy, it's deceptively dangerous, and it teeters on the edge just waiting for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath-
HIGH avalanche danger is found on all steep, mid and upper elevation slopes. The danger is most pronounced in the wind zone at and above treeline, in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered avalanches are VERY LIKELY. Don't get surprised... low elevation terrain is a player as well and you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger with human triggered avalanches LIKELY on steep, shady slopes. Lower elevation south facing terrain that had little or no snow snow prior to the big midweek storm offer MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are possible on steep slopes.
Where to ride today? You can have a blast carving deep trenches or meadow skipping in big open terrain with no overhead hazard, simply meaning... no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Watch
The avalanche danger is HIGH and an Avalanche Watch is in effect from 6am MST this morning to 6am MST Saturday for most mountains in Utah. This watch includes the Wasatch Range, Bear River Range, Uinta Range, Manti-Skyline, La Sal and Abajo Ranges, Fish Lake Region, Pavant Range, Tushar Range, and Cedar City area mountains.
Very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected as a series of storms will arrive this weekend with significant snowfall, substantial water amounts, and very strong winds. Both human-triggered and natural avalanches will become likely.
Please stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees
Special Announcements
Didn’t get what you want for Christmas? Do your loved ones simply give you money for the holidays and say “Go buy something for yourself?” Support the UAC and get a great gift for yourself or your loved one at our Holiday Auction. The auction closes at 8:00 PM MT on January 2, 2023
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- Clouds began filtering into the region late Thursday and continue in that spirit early this morning ahead of a multi-day storm with its sights squarely set on Utah. Temperatures register in the single digits and low teens while southwest winds are just beginning to ramp up into the mid 20's. Winds are gonna start raking our big open bowls, but lose a little elevation, seek out wind sheltered terrain, and you'll be greeted with outstanding riding and turning conditions on a go-anywhere base.
Forecast- Hang on to yer hats, if you wear 'em! Clouds thicken early this morning, southerly winds begin cranking into the 40's and 50's, and snow develops right around supper time. High temperatures rise into the mid and upper 20's by days end, winds put the hammer down and gust into the 70's, and a warm, wet wave of moisture settles in overnight delivering a foot of snow.
Futurecast- Winds rip tonight and additional dense, heavy snow stacks up, while temperatures remain mild. Saturday and Sunday are warm, wet, and windy. A cold front slides through Sunday night leading to a decrease in snow density to end the storm. There's a bit of uncertainly with exact timing for each wave of weather, but Atmospheric Rivers can light up the western Uinta's. This is the full-meal-deal and the bottom line is... big water, big wind, big snow!
Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Avalanche activity yesterday in the image above from Upper Weber Canyon clearly illustrates the size and scope of our current avalanche problem.
Additional avy activity and a slew of Uinta obs are HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Nothing has changed on this front. Avalanche conditions are deceptively tricky and here's why-
The latest round of avalanches are clear evidence that our snowpack is up against the ropes, but the persistent weak layer (PWL) just needs a little provocation to kick the legs out from underneath. A common theme we're seeing are slides triggered lower downslope than you might expect. So this tells me I can pull the rug out from underneath a steep slope from the bottom where the snowpack is slightly shallower and weaker. And we all know... that's a super dangerous setup. With all the great low angle riding available, there's no reason to pull on the avalanche dragons tail.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds are gonna start raging later today and there's no shortage of snow available to blow around and form fresh drifts sensitive to our additional weight. But, it's not quite as cut and dry as it seems because once initiated, a seemingly manageable wind drift may break to weaker layers of snow buried deeper in the snowpack as it crashes down onto the slope below, producing an avalanche that quickly gets out of hand. Lose the wind and you lose the problem. The key to riding safely is simply avoiding fat rounded pillows of snow, especially if they're sounding hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Please join me Wednesday Jan. 4th at 5:30 and we'll discuss what's going on with our snowpack, our avy danger, and how we can move around in the backcountry safely.
Issued at 03:41 on Friday December 30th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Saturday December 31st.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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