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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Tuesday morning, March 21, 2023
Avalanche danger remains elevated and gets even trickier this week as a series of storms evolve-
CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep, rocky, upper elevation, leeward slopes. Drifted slopes in the wind zone above treeline are sketchy and human triggered avalanches LIKELY particularly in terrain facing the north half of the compass and especially on steep slopes with an easterly component to its aspect. MODERATE avalanche danger is found at treeline and human triggered avalanches POSSIBLE on steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
If you're looking for LOW avalanche danger, remember the Uinta's have plenty of wind sheltered options. Human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY on most lower elevation slopes, particularly those facing the south half of the compass.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Nowcast- Apologies for Monday's blown weather forecast. I got the deets tangled in my brain for both strength and timing of yesterday's storm as it was weaker than advertised and arrived early this morning. But hey... better Nate than lever... it snowed! At o'dark thirty, clouds are beginning to head east in the wake of our underwhelming storm which delivered just two inches of snow. Temperatures are in the low to mid teens and westerly winds blow in the 30's near the high peaks. It's spring and that means riding and turning conditions are aspect and elevation dependent. Low elevation solars offer dust on crust, whilst mid and upper elevation, wind sheltered polars, offer cold creamy snow.
Forecast- Look for clearing skies and a short-lived break in the action this morning. Westerly winds diminish this morning only to ramp back up, blowing in the 40's later in the day. High temperatures climb into the mid 20's with overnight low dipping into the teens.
Futurecast- A storm churning to our south slowly works it's way into the Uinta's late in the day and that brings a prolonged period of storminess lasting through Thursday. I think 6"-10" of snow overnight seems like a good bet, with similar amounts stacking up Wednesday.
We've got a busy week on tap and it starts off with a Winter Storm Warning for today.
Detailed trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Sunday, a sledder unintentionally triggered this rather large, connected piece of snow in the Notch Mountain zone. They were caught, carried, and deployed their airbag and fortunately came out on top... good news!
I don't think the Notch Mountain avy is a complete outlier, but you definitely need to go hunting in order to get in trouble. Look closely here... the avy failed on weak snow near this cliff band... a likely trigger point. And while not widespread, steep, rocky, wind loaded slopes, like this alpine terrain remain suspect.
Plenty of avy activity to peruse if ya wanna geek out. Click HERE to track this years slide activity throughout the range.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
If you're looking for wind... you came to the right place. Above is a 24 hour data dump from Windy Peak (10,662')
Good news-
In general, our snowpack is rather predictable and mostly straight-forward... yeah, fat and happy in its own skin.
No so good news-
When we don't get snow... we get winds, and they're always the great equalizer for the eastern front.
Flake news-
Storm snow along with strong winds will continue loading leeward slopes, especially those in the wind zone. While most of today's fresh drifting issues are easy to detect and easy to avoid (look for and steer clear of fat, rounded pieces of snow, especially if they sound hollow like a drum) I bet there's piece of snow out there that'll break deeper and wider than you and I might expect. Steep, rocky, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass still feel suspect to me. Lose the wind and you lose the problem... there's plenty of great, wind sheltered riding out there on lower angle slopes, especially those with no overhead hazard.
Additional Information
Weather stations-
And... rime events from January's atmospheric rivers severely crippled the Uinta weather station network. I'm working to get it back up and running, but a few stations are found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
"Let's see if this wire placement makes it work (says the frustrated western Uinta avy forecaster)... it does!" Lofty Lake Peak weather station maintenance yesterday. Thanks to Cody Hughes for the assist :)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:37 on Tuesday March 21 st this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Wednesday March 22nd 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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