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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Monday, March 20, 2023
Avalanche danger gets tricky as today's storm materializes-
CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep, rocky, upper elevation, leeward slopes. Drifted slopes in the wind zone, above treeline are sketchy and human triggered avalanches LIKELY particularly in terrain facing the north half of the compass. MODERATE avalanche danger is found at treeline and human triggered avalanches POSSIBLE on steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
If you're looking for LOW avalanche danger, remember the Uinta's have plenty of wind sheltered options. Human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY on most lower elevation slopes, particularly those facing the south half of the compass.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Nowcast- Under thick clouds, light snow developed at the turn of the new day, so far delivering just and inch or two of snow. South and southeast winds began ramping up late Sunday, continuing in that spirit this morning with hourly averages in the 20's and 30's along the ridges, gusting into the 40's near the high peaks. Temperatures are reasonable and register in the teens and mid 20's. With more snow on the way, riding and turning conditions improve as the day wares on.
Forecast- A solid shot of snow continues evolving this morning and it looks like 8"-12" is a good bet by sunset. High temperatures climb into the low 30's and overnight lows under clearing skies dip into the teens. Southerly winds don't get too out of hand, but they'll be a nuisance, blowing in the 30's with a few gusts to 50 mph, before switching to the west and decreasing late in the day.
Futurecast- A brief break in the action is slated for Tuesday with another wave of moisture sliding into the area late Tuesday night through Thursday.
We've got a busy week on tap and it starts off with a Winter Storm Warning for toady.
Detailed trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, a sledder unintentionally triggered this rather large, connected piece of snow in the Notch Mountain zone. They were caught, carried, and deployed their airbag and fortunately came out on top... good news!
Plenty of avy activity to peruse if ya wanna geek out. Click HERE to track this years slide activity throughout the range.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I don't think the Notch Mountain avy is a complete outlier, but you definitely need to go hunting in order to get in trouble. Look closely here... the avy failed on weak snow near this cliff band... a likely trigger point. And while not widespread, steep, rocky, wind loaded slopes, like this alpine terrain remain suspect.
Good news-
In general our snowpack is fat and happy in its own skin.
Bad news-
Recent storms are stacking up tremendous amounts of snow, water, and wind and even the strongest snowpacks will eventually reveal a weakness somewhere in their layering.
Flake news-
Storm snow along with strong winds will continue loading leeward slopes, especially those in the wind zone. While most of today's fresh drifting issues are straight-forward and easy to avoid (look for and steer clear of fat, rounded pieces of snow, especially if they sound hollow like a drum) I bet there's piece of snow out there that'll break deeper and wider than you and I might expect. Steep, rocky, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass still feel suspect to me. Lose the wind and you lose the problem... there's plenty of great, wind sheltered riding out there on lower angle slopes, especially those with no overhead hazard.
Additional Information
Weather stations-
And... rime events from January's atmospheric rivers severely crippled the Uinta weather station network. I'm working to get it back up and running, but a few stations are found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
"Let's see if this wire placement makes it work (says the frustrated western Uinta avy forecaster)... it does!" Lofty Lake Peak weather station maintenance yesterday. Thanks to Cody Hughes for the assist :)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:37 on Monday March 20th this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Tuesday March 21st 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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