Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Sunday, January 27, 2019
No big change from Saturday, AVALANCHE CONDTIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS TODAY. Human triggered avalanches are again likely today. The most likely places for avalanches are on upper elevation steep slopes on the east half of the compass. Wind drifted snow is a big factor and many slopes on the east side of the compass have been recently loaded by wind drifted snow which is overloading buried weak layers of sugary snow.
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Special Announcements
Two Utah men died in avalanches on Friday - Tommy Hawkins of Layton, Utah (snowmobiling near upper Palisades Lake, Idaho) and Scott Pehrson, of Monticello, UT (snowmobiling in the eastern La Sals, UT) We offer our deep sympathy to the family and friends of these two men. In Utah, a huge thanks to members from San Juan and Grand County Search and Rescues, Utah Department of Public Safety, and professional avalanche rescue dogs and handlers from Wasatch Backcountry Rescue, Alta, and Park City Ski areas who conducted recovery efforts.
Weather and Snow
Wind has been a significant factor with all of the avalanche activity over the last two weeks. It looks like it will again be somewhat breezy today which will again transport snow. We'll see partly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the upper 20s.
Recent Avalanches
A local snowmobiler triggered a sizable avalanche near Logger's Fork Reservoir on Saturday. He was not caught. It appears that this avalanche follows suit with other recent avalanches in that it broke deep into old weak sugary snow.
There was another avalanche near the Seely Creek guard station outside of Ephraim Canyon on Saturday also. It was possibly "remotely" triggered by snowmobilers but it also may have released naturally from the wind drifting snow onto the slope during the day. The fracture line was reported to be up to 15 feet deep.
My partner and I stumbled onto another avalanche that looks like it released within the last day or so. It was near Island Lake outside of 12 Mile Canyon. It was most likely a natural avalanche caused by wind drifted snow but there's a slight chance it was triggered remotely by snowmobilers. Like the rest, it broke into older weak sugary snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak layers of sugary snow which formed earlier in the year have been causing avalanches over the last two weeks. This weak snow is scattered around on all aspects and is a concern currently in the mid and upper elevations. Wind drifted snow adding weight on top of the buried persistent weak layers is a BIG factor. Most of the avalanche activity over the last few weeks has been on more east facing slopes that have had wind drifted snow blown onto them. We call this buried weak snow a "persistent weak layer" because it can persist and cause avalanches for a long period of time. This weak snow is still likely to cause avalanches today.
Additional Information
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.