Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Saturday, January 26, 2019
From all of the recent avalanche activity (noted below) it should be obvious that we are still dealing with unstable conditions. The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE which means human triggered avalanches are likely. With nice weather and excellent riding conditions, this weekend is again ripe for an avalanche accident or close call. It is difficult to determine which slopes are stable and which are unstable so your best bet is to avoid slopes over 30 degrees in steepness until we see conditions improve.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Recent Avalanches
A SNOWMOBILER IS MISSING AFTER TRIGGERING AN AVALANCHE ON FRIDAY IN THE LA SAL MOUNTAINS. ORGANIZED RESCUE WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING.
Three snowmobile triggered avalanches happened on Friday in the Ephraim Canyon area. No one was caught or injured. They were all on more east facing slopes in higher steep terrain where wind drifted snow had been deposited. It appears that at least 2 of them broke into older buried weak sugary snow.
Photo: Seely Creek, Scott Watson
Photo: exact location unknown, courtesy of Nick Shaw, second hand info
Slightly older avalanche news is this natural avalanche from Monday in Spring City Canyon. This is a repeat offender which already avalanched once earlier this season. This avalanche broke into older weak sugary snow which fits the pattern of our main concern right now.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak layers of sugary snow which formed earlier in the year have been causing avalanches over the last two weeks. This weak snow is scattered around on all aspects and is a concern currently in the mid and upper elevations. Wind drifted snow adding weight on top of the buried persistent weak layers is a BIG factor. Most of the avalanche activity over the last few weeks has been on more east facing slopes that have had wind drifted snow blown onto them. We call this buried weak snow a "persistent weak layer" because it can persist and cause avalanches for a long period of time. This weak snow is still likely to cause avalanches this weekend.
Additional Information
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.