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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples for
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Today there are three avalanche problems to watch for. Strong southerly winds have drifted snow and formed fresh slabs that should be easily triggered today. With more snow and more wind, these slabs will make the danger CONSIDERABLE at upper elevations. As snow falls today, shallow soft slabs of new snow could produce avalanches. At low elevations, the snow is already wet and rain will make wet avalanches a problem watch for. The avalanche danger at mid and lower elevations is MODERATE but could rise higher if more snow falls than is expected.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
TONIGHT at 7PM at Rocksteady Bodyworks in Holladay an interactive discussion on the State of the Snowpack. Read these blog posts before going: LOW Danger Chapter 1, Chapter 2, Chapter 3, Chapter 4. You can find them all under our Blog page in the Menu above.
HEADS UP for ROOF AVALANCHES: Warm temperatures and rain will make the snow on many roofs unstable. Please alert your friends and family who may not normally check avalanche forecasts. Roof avalanches can be deadly especially for children. Below is a photo (D. Richards) of a roof avalanche this morning in Little Cottonwood Canyon. Notice the dog for scale.
Weather and Snow
Currently: Strong southerly winds began blowing yesterday afternoon. This morning they are averaging about 20-25 mph at most ridgetops and gusting 40-60 mph. At 11,000 feet some gusts overnight reached 80 mph. Temperatures are relatively warm this morning and above freezing generally below 8500 feet. Near 10,000 feet, temperatures are in the upper 20's F. Only an inch or two of snow had fallen as of 4 a.m.
Today: A warm, wet, and windy storm will bring 4-8 inches of dense snow today. Snowfall could be heavy at times. Temperatures should warm a bit this morning with the approaching storm. The rain-snow line will be around 7500 feet today. It should start dropping slowly as temperatures cool late this afternoon. Strong southerly winds will continue.
This week: Snowfall should continue through tonight with another 2-4 inches falling. Another storm will arrive Friday. This one will come from the northwest with much colder temperatures and lighter snow.
The graph below is from 10,000 feet on the Park City Ridgeline (Jupiter Station) showing increased southelry winds that started yesterday.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday a snowmobiler triggered a slide in Caribou Basin that was 2-3 feet deep. See the photo below. This slide is notable but seems like an outlier as we have not seen any similar avalanches. It is a good reminder why we travel with a partner, only expose one person at a time, and carry rescue gear. (photo C. Terlaga).
Guides in Cardiff Fork yesterday intentionally triggered a fresh wind slab that was 10 inches deep, 50 feet wide, and running 400 feet vertical.
They also reported seeing a massive cornice fall in front of them in Mineral Fork. Fortunately no one was under or near it when it fell.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong southerly winds should have already formed shallow slabs of wind drifted snow this morning. As snow and winds continue today, these should grow in thickness and become more unstable. The best strategy is to look for signs of wind loading and avoid these fresh wind drifts. For this morning at mid and upper elevations, avoiding wind loaded slopes will help you avoid most avalanche problems. Heavy snowfall will change this situation as the day progresses. See the New Snow discussion below.
CORNICES - With so much snowfall, cornices are massive. When and where cornices break is totally unpredictable; however, today's snow and wind-loading will add more weight and more stress to them which should make them more likely to break. Photo below is a photo of a cornice yesterday in the Wolverine Cirque.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As more snow falls, avalanches will become more likely in the new snow. Its always hard to know exactly how the new snow will react, but it is typically most sensitive during periods of heavy snowfall. With such warm temperatures, I expect the new snow to be fairly cohesive and should break as a shallow soft slab.
Pay attention to how the new snow reacts to your weight while traveling today. You should see signs that it is becoming unstable, mainly in the form of cracking in the new snow.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Snow at low elevations is already wet from warm temperatures yesterday. Rain at low elevations could trigger loose wet avalanches today. Most people won't be spending much time in the rain, but watch for wet avalanches especially near creek bottoms or other gullies and terrain traps where even an very small wet avalanche can make a deep pile of debris.
Additional Information
Thinking of traveling further south to the Provo area mountains or the Mt Nebo area (recent Nebo area ob)? The snowpack is a different than in the Central Wasatch and will much more time to stabilize after this weeks storm or future storms before aiming for big objectives.
Our friends and colleagues in upper LCC at the Alta Guard station (UDOT avalanche team) have been keeping records of snowfall since 1945. February snow totals were 122" and 13.19" of SWE (Snow-Water-Equivalent - if you melted that 122" of snow into a cylinder). This ranks as the 7th snowiest on record and the 2nd wettest on record. Year to date is 320" and 32.36". It's been quite the run, and the pattern generally looks to keep things wet. Thanks to UDOT and the 'keeper of the ancient scrolls' Mark Saurer. All the numbers can be found here.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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