Observation: Mt Nebo

Observation Date
3/5/2019
Observer Name
Meisenheimer / Staples
Region
Provo » Mt Nebo
Location Name or Route
Santaquin Canyon to Nebo Loop Rd.
Weather
Sky
Scattered
Wind Direction
Southwest
Wind Speed
Light
Weather Comments
Nice weather in the am. High clouds and flat light for our exit. Warm out.
Snow Characteristics
New Snow Depth
10"
New Snow Density
High
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Wind Crust
Melt-Freeze Crust
Damp
Snow Characteristics Comments
Wet and heavy snow down in the canyon. Once up top on the loop road there was very good riding conditions. The snow was very heavy but allowed for floaty riding.
Red Flags
Red Flags
Recent Avalanches
Wind Loading
Rapid Warming
Poor Snowpack Structure
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments
There remains the possibility that you can trigger a very large and destructive avalanche in the Nebo area. In places where the snowpack is greater than 200 cm the chances of triggering a slide is low. The likelihood is low, but the consequences are devastating. The other thing to consider is that over the next several days the snowpack will become more and more stressed by heavy snowfall and strong winds. This will increase the likelihood of triggering avalanches.
In repeater paths where the snowpack is less than 100 cm the likelihood is increased even more so. As seen in our snowpit profile there is a deep and strengthening snowpack. However, it's not green light just yet. Anytime, we get propagation in our snowpit tests a huge red flag goes off in our heads (see picture two). We were still finding very weak snow near the ground and in the midpack.
At this point, I would need more information or more time to get after the big runs on the Nebo massiff.
Comments
Seeing the recent natural avalanche off the east side of North Peak (north of Nebo) is enough information for us. The recent slide (picture 1) looks to be 300' wide 6-8' deep to the ground and ran 2,300' vertical feet down hill. The arrow on the right hand side of the photo shows this avalanche. The red outline was another avalanche that likely occurred in mid February sometime and is now filling back in. We measured this avalanche on Google Earth and the red outline is 1,900' with a maximum width of 900' feet. Areas that have previously avalanched like in this photo should be treated as no go terrain. See Wilson/Hardesty observation from the Provo area on repeater slide paths HERE.
Anytime, there is a full depth avalanche the snowpack resets to ground zero. If it stays shallow and cold you can expect weak snow to be there. With the storm approaching tonight and into tomorrow you could assume there is weak snow in any path that has previously avalanched. To complicate the issue - you will no longer be able to see the old crowns and it will become virtually impossible to know which slopes have avalanched and which ones have not.
Picture 3 - Trent pointing at the two weak layers that propagated in our tests.
Another large recent avalanche was spotted one bowl south of Middle Basin. This looked to be confined to the new snow (mid pack) and was likely 2-4' deep and roughly 1,300' feet wide running 3,400' vertical feet.
Mark looking at the snowpack on a NE facing slope at 8,200' in elevation on the shoulder of Dry Mountain. Here we found a pretty solid snowpack with a good structure.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable
Coordinates