Greatest Rain on Earth?!?: Forecaster Drew Hardesty penned a new essay about high-elevation rain and the warm-snow drought HERE.
Weak Snow: Today's Surface, Tomorrow's Avalanche Problem: Essay by UAC Director Paige Pagnucco HERE.
Yesterday evening, the storm finally arrived a bit late. Favored areas picked up 2-3 inches snow // 0.1-0.3 inches H20 by 5am, while sustained winds blew out of the SSW in the mid to high 20s mph, gusting into the 60s mph along the highest ridgelines.
Today, the warm atmospheric river continues with freezing levels rising near 8k feet. Mountain temps will be in the 20s to low 30s F, with sustained moderate winds from the SSW gusting strong. These winds are as much a part of the story as the snowfall is. There is a potential for thunderstorms during snowfall, so hold onto your hat (and get your kite + key). As the storm carries on today into tomorrow, we can expect:
- Favored areas (Upper LCC, BCC): 3-6 inches of snow // 0.3-0.6 inches H2O by 5pm
- Less-favored areas (PC Ridgeline): 1-3 inches of snow // 0.1-0.3 inches H2O by 5pm
Tonight into tomorrow, freezing levels will drop back to near 7k feet as temps gradually cool off. Precipitation will continue, with the potential for up to an additional 4-6 inches snow // 0.3-0.5" H2O to fall by tomorrow morning in favored areas. Winds out of the SSW will continue to blow moderate to strong, transporting snow with them. This round of precip will taper into Thursday.
Pattern shifts as mindset shifts: We have been in an open season mindset for ~a month. Our last large storm ended on 1/9, leaving us with far-flung travel, and a mostly LOW avalanche danger. I'm using the pattern shift for an intentional pause to shift my mindset. There are two things certain this week: more snow (of some amount) and increased avalanche activity (of some amount as well). We will not be getting one without the other. Reining in my status quo notions of where and how to travel is at the forefront of my mind, as is dialing back terrain choices as more snow falls. (Roger Atkins has some more for you to chew on HERE).
No avalanche activity was reported yesterday.
Forecaster Nikki Champion was in the Brighton backcountry on Monday, seeing how initial snowfall was coming in. You can view all recent observations here.
