Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Tuesday, November 1, 2022
AVALANCHE SEASON IS UPON US.
The avalanche danger will rise Wednesday in lockstep with the storm. Human triggered new snow and wind slab avalanches may be expected in steep terrain. As it is still early season, remember that any avalanche involvement may lead to significant traumatic injury.
We will update this forecast Thursday morning.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Remember to treat ski areas as backcountry terrain and check each resort's travel restrictions on the Resort Uphill Policy page before accessing their terrain.
The ski areas are getting ready for their operating seasons to start so please be respectful of equipment and employees both on and off the slopes.
Give snowcats and snowmobiles a wide berth as they move around their terrain.
Weather and Snow
Happy November!
Coverage is excellent with 15-30" of supportable base on the mid and upper elevation northerly aspects in the upper Cottonwoods and 12-18" along the Park City ridgeline. The Ogden are mountains have just 2-6" on the ground while the Provo mountains hold 6-12" in the upper elevations. East through south through west aspects are crusted if not bare. But still. Alta ski area recorded 37.5"/4.24" (snow-water-equivalent) for the month of October, but it wasn't Winter 04/05. I wrote the following in that season's Annual Report:
"Winter kicked into high gear on October 17th with measurable snow falling every day but one through Halloween. Alta ski area recorded a phenomenal 122โ€ of snow over those two weeks with 14.85โ€of water. Much of the deluge came in warm on a southwesterly flow which evenly blanketed the northern mountains, but kept the snow levels around 8000โ€™ and higher. We looked back to the old Atwater/LaChapelle records dating back to 1945 and confirmed that not only did we smash snow and water records for October, but did so in just two weeks!" (You can access all of our Annual Reports since the early 1980s HERE)
Upper Little Cottonwood did finish that season with over 700", but make no mistake: Utah also suffered eight backcountry fatalities that winter.

WEATHER SITUATION:
A potent Pacific storm is on the doorstep, which should be no surprise to anyone experiencing the very warm mountain temps (mid to upper 40s!) and punishing southerly winds (gusts to 50mph along the ridgelines). Snowfall on a southerly flow should begin in earnest during the Wednesday morning commute and I expect heavy snowfall throughout the day. 8-14" can be expected by early evening with snowfall continuing through midday Thursday. Storm totals look to be 12-18" or more with perhaps 1.5" snow water equivalent. Mountain temperatures drop to the upper teens by Wednesday afternoon with snow levels flirting with the valley benches. Temperatures continue falling to near the upper single digits by Thursday. Southwest winds will crank 40-50mph Tuesday night before veering to the northwest and losing steam by midday Wednesday.
Unsettled weather along with a warming trend is expected for Friday through the early weekend. Sunday/Monday is barely a break before the another significant storm system reloads for late Monday through mid-week. We'll see.

AVALANCHE SITUATION:
For Wednesday, I anticipate two main avalanche concerns.
Wind slabs: Hard old wind slabs and soft new winds slabs. First, owing to the searing southerly winds, pockets of hard but shallow wind slab will exist in steep avalanche prone terrain, particularly on steep northerly aspects. These hard drifts may also be scattered in and around terrain features such as gullies, around rocky outcrops or at the base of cliffbands. Remember that hard slabs tend to break above you and may be difficult to escape in confined terrain. These hard drifts will be covered by the new snow and new wind drifts. Bruce Tremper used to call this new snow "sucker snow" because the powder would lure you onto the hidden drifts beneath them. Take note. Shooting cracks are good indicators of instability, but may not always be present.
New Snow avalanches: Second, new snow instabilities spike during periods of heavy snowfall. Both loose snow sluffing and soft slab avalanches may be encountered in the steeper terrain of all aspects. The new snow is expected to bond poorly to the weak recrystallized faceted snow on the upper elevation northerly terrain and also poorly to the slick pre-existing sun crusts on the solar aspects.
Recent Avalanches
It should be noted that AVALANCHE SEASON is upon us. Last weekend's storm brought a number of natural and human triggered avalanches with at least one skier caught, carried, and dragged through some rocks.
Check out our observations page for the latest updates from around Utah. Please keep these observations coming.
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Additional Information
A Few Things to Remember:
  • It doesn't matter what you're doing in the mountains-going for a hike, hunting, trying to ski, board, snowshoe or firing up the snowmachine: be prepared for avalanches
  • Triggering any avalanche regardless of its size can produce serious trauma because of a thin snowpack
  • Hitting rocks and stumps is a real danger. Don't end your season early from hitting one of these obstacles
  • Treat ski resorts as backcountry terrain and check out the UAC site for resort uphill travel policies

Even if you're not planning to get onto the snow, it's never too early to start thinking about avalanches. A few things to consider doing:
1. Attend USAW and learn more about avalanches and decision making. (scroll down to the bottom of this page for more info and links)
2. Sign up for an avalanche class.
4. Take the all-new online avalanche courses the UAC built for Know Before You Go or take other online courses listed on the KBYG website (Develop skills -> Online Learning).
5. Get your avalanche rescue gear ready for winter. Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and update the firmware. Inspect your shovel and probe. Get your airbag backpack ready by possibly doing a test deployment and update the firmware if it is an electric version.
Sign up for the 15th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) on two nights, November 2nd and 9th. Sign up and get more info for the first session HERE and the second session HERE.
The Avalanche Professional and Ski Patrol Snow and Avalanche Workshop (PROSAW) will be during the day of November 7th. Sign up and get more info HERE. (note - PROSAW will be offered both in-person and virtual).
General Announcements
Check out this great Winter Outlook 2022-2023 video put out by our partners at the National Weather Service.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.