Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation NEW - Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills On-Snow Courses Resources and Tutorials
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion for
Wednesday, March 29, 2023
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep upper elevation slopes facing northwest to east to southeast where strong winds and recent storm snow have created unstable slabs of wind-drifted snow. A MODERATE danger exists for triggering both loose dry and soft slab avalanches on the remaining upper elevation aspects and all mid-elevation slopes.
Both wind-drifted and new snow avalanches will likely fail 1-2’ deep, but have the potential to fail deeper at the new/old snow interface that is now down 2-5’ in places. For that reason, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making will be essential today.
With the high winds and warm temperatures, natural cornice fall will be likely today. Give cornices, and slopes below cornices a wide berth.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
On Monday, March 27, two snowmobilers were riding in the Oquirrh Mountains. One was caught, carried, and fully buried in a very large avalanche. His partner, friends and family, Utah County Search and Rescue, Utah Department of Public Safety, and LifeFlight participated in the rescue, but he sadly did not survive. The preliminary avalanche report can be found HERE.
Our sincerest condolences go out to everyone affected by this tragic avalanche.
We are in the process of finalizing a report about the March 9th avalanche fatality in the Uintas. Thank you for your patience, and we will publish the final report in coming days.
Thank you to everyone who donated to our Spring Campaign. We appreciate your support and look forward to creating new tools to help you stay safe in the backcountry.
Weather and Snow
This morning, skies are broken and mountain temperatures are sitting in the upper 20s and low 30s F. Winds remained elevated since yesterday, blowing from the southwest at speeds of 20-30 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph. At the highest ridgelines, winds are gusting near 60 mph.
Today, a strong southerly flow will continue through the evening ahead of the approaching low-pressure system. Skies will be mostly cloudy, and temperatures will climb into the low and mid 40s F. Winds will remain south, southwesterly averaging 25-35 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph. At the highest ridgelines winds will gust up to 70 mph. Snowfall will begin mid to late afternoon before becoming more consistent this evening. The mountains could get a trace amount of new snow before 5 PM.
Outlook, yet another powerful Pacific storm is on deck. We'll see increasing clouds and southwest winds today ahead of at-times heavy snowfall tonight through Friday. Snowfall will peak this evening, with the heaviest snowfall arriving between 10 PM and 1 AM. The mountains could get 7 -12" of new snow before sunrise.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, was a busy day in the backcountry. Three new avalanches were reported from the Provo area mountains and over 10 avalanches were reported from the Central Wasatch backcountry. Primarily soft slabs of both new snow, and wind-drifted snow at the mid and upper elevations. An impressive large natural powdercloud avalanche from the "Middle Finger" on Timpanogos was caught on video Monday. Avalanche debris stopped safely in the Dry Lakes area adjacent to the ski area but the dust cloud carried for hundreds of yards. See the video below.
With the good visibility, a few impressive naturals were reported that likely occurred between the 26th and 27th, including a large avalanche from Mill B and Rainbow Peak.
Find all recent observations HERE.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The bump in southwest winds, plus soft snow available for transport will have formed soft slabs of wind-drifted snow at all mid and upper elevations. With the winds slated to remain elevated, these shallow slabs will only continue to grow, and become more cohesive throughout the day. This could allow for a rider to be farther out on a slope before it breaks, or to trigger these avalanches remotely, from a distance.
These avalanches will be most pronounced on upper elevation northwest to east to southeast facing terrain, but such high winds can load any aspect because winds swirl and change direction as they pass through the mountains, this is known as cross-loading.
Look for slopes with any signs of wind-drifted snow, such as cracking, hollow noises, and pillow-shaped snow, and avoid those slopes.
Photo of wind-drifting snow at the highest ridgetops above American Fork. D. Kelly
Cornices: Yesterday we got a few reports of natural cornice fall. Cornices are currently large and only continue to grow in the backcountry. With today's warm temperatures and high winds, we will continue to see more cornices breaking naturally. Give cornices, and the edges of cornices a wide berth as they often break farther back than expected. Limit your exposure to slopes below cornices. A cornice fall could trigger a larger slab of wind-drifted snow below.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Out of the wind zone, both slab and loose snow avalanches may break within the different layering of new snow from the past week.
These avalanches may fail within the new snow (1-2' deep) or at the new snow/old snow interface (which is now 2-5' down) as we saw near the Ant Knolls, Rainbow Peak, and Mill B. It has also been reported that some new snow avalanches have then stepped down to this older interface from last week. These could be large and deadly avalanches, as Drew said yesterday "the snowpack is more rich, complex, and interesting than I want it to be right now." We have just received so much snow with very little break, the snowpack has not had time to adjust to these large stressors.
Until the snowpack stabilizes, or we get more time between storms, I plan on sticking to lower-angle slopes. If you do choosee to step out into steeper terrain, choose terrain that won't kill you if you get caught off guard.
Wild card: It's almost April, and that sun is strong. The high wind, and increased cloud cover should keep the wet snow at bay today - but any periods of strong sunshine could spike the avalanche danger, and wet snow avalanches could run. If the snow becomes damp and you start seeing rollerballs and sluffing, it will become time to switch aspects and choose low-angle terrain.
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
Observations and Avalanches
Backcountry Emergency Procedures
Instagram
Facebook
Get Forecast Email
Previous Forecasts
Contact via email
Submit Observation
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >