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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Saturday, February 16, 2019
Areas of CONSIDERABLE DANGER exist for heavily wind loaded slopes. The danger is most pronounced on upper elevation northerly through easterly facing terrain. Non-wind drifted slopes have a MODERATE danger. Cornices are an issue - Exercise great caution along and underneath the heavily corniced ridgelines.
Safe Travel Protocols are critical: one at a time, get out of the way at the bottom, have a plan.
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Special Announcements
An AVALANCHE WARNING for the Uintas and the Manti-Skyline Plateau remains in effect with a HIGH avalanche danger.
The accident reports for the four avalanche fatalities are all finalized with some first-hand accounts and worth reading. We all have something to learn so that we can get home safely to our loved ones.
Jan 18 Electric Lake Accident (Skyline area)
Jan 25 Laurel Peak Accident (Moab area)
Feb 7 Circleville Mtn Accident (Southwest area near Beaver, UT)
Feb 9 Chalk Creek Accident (Western Uintas)
The latest UAC Podcast was just released: The Message and the Messengers - A Conversation with Alex Hamlin. In this podcast, we sit down with Alex Hamlin. For over fifteen years, Alex Hamlin has worked at the intersection of storytelling and outdoor sport, with experience at magazines, global retail brands and creative agencies....
Weather and Snow
Skies are overcast with light snow falling in the mountains. Skiing and riding today will be nothing short of sublime.
Overnight storm totals are 4"/0.42" in the Provo mountains. We'll see another inch or two during the day today.
Winds are generally light from the west-northwest.
Temperatures are in the teens.
It's been quite the run. Since Wednesday, snow and water amounts are
LCC: 30"/3.72"
BCC: 26"/3.64"
PC ridgeline: 21"/2.35"
Ogden: 32"/4.0"
Provo: 21"/3.7"
Snow depths are 110-135"+ in the upper Cottonwoods and 75-90" along the PC ridgeline. The Ogden and Provo mountains boast (and I mean boast) snow depths of 95" (and - mind you - these snow stakes are at 7500'-8000')!
Recent Avalanches
A large natural avalanche ran yesterday mid-morning in Lost Creek. Lost Creek is on the southern end of Timpanogos and threatens the road. It likely started as a natural wind slab which then gouged down into wet snow at the lower elevations and proceeded down into the brushy transition. A wet natural sluff also likely ran yesterday below the Fang and other iceclimbs in Provo Canyon. Ski ara control work produced a large 1-2' deep and 1000' wide avalanche on the Ipanna face at roughly 8000' and East facing that filled the Corkscrew with debris below. And natural wind and storm slab avalanches on Bob's Knob (east facing 8100') north of Aspen Grove were noted that ran on Valentine's Day. These were 1-3' deep, mid-slope and were hundreds of feet wide, taking out immature aspens below. Debris also crossed the winter road. More info here. Large naturals also noted on Cascade ridgeline and near Corral Mtn from the 14th.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Heavily wind loaded areas are still suspect. Soft and hard wind slabs may be triggered in steep terrain today, primarily in the upper elevations on northerly through easterly aspects. They'll be challenging to recognize as they're now buried underneath 6-8" of powder. Tremper used to call it "sucker snow" for good reason as it'll lure you out onto the wind slab. These drifts are becoming increasingly stubborn, but they do have the nasty habit of pulling out on perhaps the third or fourth person down the slope, perhaps where the lens of the teardrop-shaped drift tapers small. They also like to pull out well above you. The term "unmanageable" comes to mind.
The majority of these drifts are in upper elevation northerly through easterly aspects but scattered around the compass in the mid-elevations due to terrain channeling.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered large avalanches into much older snow layering 3-6'+ deep are possible in isolated areas. In general, these avalanches probably need to be triggered by a heavy load such as multiple snowmobiles on a slope, a cornice fall, new snow avalanches stepping down to older layers, or an explosive. Or being unlucky enough in finding the thinner trigger spot in the slab. Terrain that has avalanched previously (repeater slopes) or other thinner snowpack areas are not to be trusted. Cracking and collapsing rarely play a role here.
Avalanche Problem #3
Cornice
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
CORNICES ARE ENORMOUS. Most of these are too large to intentionally drop onto a slope below. They will break back farther than you think, well back from the apex of the ridgeline. 5% of our avalanche fatalities in Utah have involved cornice fall. Exercise great caution along and underneath the heavily corniced ridgelines.
General Announcements
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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