Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Tuesday, December 6, 2022
A tricky CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep west to north to southeast facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. Dangerous human triggered avalanches 1-4' deep and up to 300' wide are likely...and may be triggered at a distance. A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on all south and southwest facing slopes and in the low elevation bands.
NOTE that loose new snow avalanches can be expected in very steep terrain of all aspects again today.
Travel Advice: Choose low angle terrain with nothing steep above.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Join the Utah Avalanche Center and the Division of Outdoor Recreation to celebrate the Fourth Annual Avalanche Awareness week, from December 4 - December 11. Click here to view the full list of events for the week.
Weather and Snow
Skies are clear.
Storm totals are 8-12" (0.80-1.20"Snow water equivalent) and riding conditions are quite good.
As of 5am, mountain temperatures are in the upper teens. Winds are light and westerly.
For today we'll have mostly clear skies, light west to southwest winds and temperatures in the mid-teens up high, the low twenties down low. Should be glorious.
The Outlook: We'll have good powder preservation weather through the week with generally cool temps and light winds. A weak system pushes through mid-week that'll bring a few inches to the central Utah mountains and possibly as far north as the Provo area mountains. Beyond that, the models depict another storm for the weekend.
Recent Avalanches
None noted though a long time observer thought he could hear avalanches in Primrose Cirque above Aspen Grove yesterday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The mid-November drought created a very weak snow surface composed of facets and patches of surface hoar on all aspects and elevations throughout the Wasatch Range.
Mark Staples put together a comprehensive Blog Post on the weather and snowpack history HERE>
Avalanches have been triggered at this weak interface nearly every day in the Central Wasatch since November 29th. North and East facing aspects harbored some of the weaker faceted snow and have also seen the most wind loading (primarily last Wednesday and Thursday). Not surprisingly, the bulk of the natural and human triggered avalanches have occurred on these aspects (see Heat Map of avalanches below). The Provo mountains have a similar poor snowpack structure and most experience backcountry riders are choosing conservative terrain.
These soft and hard slab avalanches are failing on this weak PWL (persistent weak layer) 1-4' deep and up to 350' wide. These avalanches are sometimes accompanied by audible whumphs or collapses...with many of them triggered at a distance.
November's low sun angle and colder than normal temperatures led to a poor snowpack structure on south and west facing aspects and backcountry observers have experienced cracking and collapsing in this terrain. This is unusual. Although these "off aspects" have a more complicated snow structure and have experienced less loading (in fact some scouring away of snow), I am not ready to trust these aspects just yet.
TREND: STEADY
Additional Information
MOST ACCIDENTS AND FATALITIES OCCUR DURING A CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE DANGER THAT INVOLVES A PERSISTENT WEAK LAYER.
A word to the wise: Don't get fooled.
As avalanches become more stubborn and cracking and cracking become less commonplace, there can be a tendency to believe that conditions are improving faster than they are.
The GOOD NEWS is that riding conditions are 5 STAR on all aspects and on low angle slopes. Choose low angle terrain with nothing steep above you.
General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.