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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Saturday, December 2, 2023
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist and they will only become more dangerous overnight and into tomorrow.
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists primarily on steep wind drifted northerly to easterly facing aspects in the upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches 1-3' deep are likely and may be triggered at a distance (remotely). Some natural avalanches are possible due to the wind. A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on all other mid-elevation slopes. Remember that traumatic injury is likely with any avalanche involvement this early season.
****The danger may reach toward HIGH by late afternoon to early evening. Watch for changing conditions with new snow and wind.****
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Please be aware of uphill travel policies at the ski areas and respect their closures to keep you and their workers safe.
The 5th Annual Avalanche Awareness Week is December 3-10. The week's goal is to save lives through activities that promote avalanche awareness, education, and safety. We have a variety of events around the state. Find an event near you.
Weather and Snow
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the mountains of northern and central Utah through Monday morning as a series of storms move through the region.
Winter has returned with a vengeance. Buckle up.
As of 5am, storm totals are 8-14" with upwards of 1.0" of snow water equivalent. The Ben Lomond weather station is recording 13" and 1.88" of snow water equivalent. Temperatures are in the teens. Winds, however, have played the spoiler overnight, blowing 20-25mph with gusts to 40mph. Some of the highest elevations have gusts to 50mph.
This morning, we'll see a bit of a lull in the snowfall though we could squeeze an additional 3-6" of new during the day. Temps will be in the teens. Winds will blow 25-30mph from the west-northwest.
By late afternoon, we transition to a strong wet, warm, and windy style of storm that will last through early Monday. Particularly heavy snowfall can be expected in the Ogden area mountains with the rain-snowline rising from the valleys to perhaps 6500'+, west-northwest winds averaging 45-50mph and temps warming to the mid-20s. Yuk. 15-30" of storm totals can be expected.
Clearing and diminishing winds are expected later Monday. A grazing storm rides to the north Thursday with another storm possible over the weekend.
Remember that snow coverage is still thin, with 1-2' of snow on the ground...and prior to this storm, many southerly aspects were bare.
The Salt Lake National Weather Service has an excellent collection of mountain weather forecasts and current conditions.
Recent Avalanches
By yesterday afternoon, the very low density snow became quite sensitive. Shooting cracks were prevalent and it was easy to trigger shallow (4-8" deep and 40' wide) very soft slabs of wind drifted snow. These all failed within the new snow, just an inch or two above the old rotten snow surface. It only took a whisper of wind. Some shallow sluffs cascading over some rockbands in the upper elevations along the Ogden skyline triggered some long shooting cracks and produced deep audible whumphs. These are undeniable redflags.
Three valuable observations to give you an idea of the current snowpack structure and coverage:
Derek DeBruin's excellent overview of the current snowpack coverage throughout the Ogden area mountains.
Nikki Champion and Dave Kelly's observation from Hell's Canyon in the Snowbasin backcountry from Monday.
McKinley Talty's observation of Ben Lomond from Cutler Ridge on Saturday.
Submit your snow and avalanche observation HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
You will be able to trigger 1-3' deep soft slab avalanches today that fracture within the old pre-existing snow. This old snow, consisting of a stacked mess of weak sugary facets, crusts and patches of feathery surface hoar (frost) has all the strength of a house of cards. In steep wind drifted terrain, you are likely to see shooting cracks, hear audible collapses and possibly trigger soft slab avalanches, even at a distance. It will be tricky and dangerous today.
The most dangerous slopes face northwest to east at the mid and upper elevations. West facing slopes are suspect as well. Treat any freshly wind loaded slope as dangerous.
A thin-but-just-enough-to-be-dangerous amount of snow exists on upper elevation shady aspects, with layers of crusts and weak faceted snow down near the ground. UAC Avalanche Education coordinator McKinley Talty's photo below of the Ben Lomond headwall from Cutler Ridge provides a great example of the snowpack coverage at the upper elevations and where this current weakness can be found.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Owing to the moderate to strong west-northwest winds, soft slab avalanches of fresh wind deposits may be found on a variety of aspects and elevations, but primarily on north to east to southerly facing slopes. Sensitive soft slabs be also be cross-loaded on other aspects, with loading patterns possible well down the slope. Look for and avoid thicker, stiffer, and chalky feeling drifts. Prior to this storm, many southerly aspects were dry.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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