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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion for
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Avalanche season is here, with shady upper elevation slopes where old snow exists the bulls eye terrain for avalanches today. With the first few inches of snow today, expect new snow sluffs. If we get more than about 6 inches of snow, with wind, expect to trigger shallow slabs breaking on the persistent weak layer. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully today.
If you get caught and go for a ride even in a small slide, hitting rocks and stumps is likely.
We will provide an updates again Thursday and Friday, but we are not issuing danger rating.
We are posting observations every day now, so submit an avalanche or observation HERE. Read observations HERE.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Remember, the open and closed resorts have different uphill travel policies, which may change daily as they work towards opening for the season. Check with each resort for the current information. Terrain in unopened resorts must be treated as backcountry.
As part of your early season tune-up, consider taking an avalanche class. We have lots of avalanche education classes listed already:
Weather and Snow
The low pressure system over central California this morning is slowly moving into northern Utah, bringing rain and snow along with colder temperatures through Thursday evening. This pulse will hit the Ogden area a bit later than the Cottonwoods. For today, 1 to 3 inches is expected at the mid elevations, with up to 6" possible at the higher elevations by tonight. The rain/snow line is expected to remain near 8,500 ft today and snow densities will be high.
Winds will be from the south to southeast, averaging 10 to 20 mph, with gusts in the upper 20s. Snow levels will fall a bit overnight, and winds will turn more easterly, favoring the back side of the Wasatch. High pressure will work east across the Great Basin this weekend. Next week is looking more stormy, and winter may finally be here to stay.
There is around 1 foot of snow on the shady slopes above 8,000 feet throughout the Ogden area mountains. Old snow distribution is going to be very important the next few weeks, so be conscious of where coverage is as it forming a weak layer at the ground. Recent observations have great photos to help you visualize the coverage.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Location
Likelihood
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Description
Avalanche season is on our doorstep. The shady upper elevation slopes harbor around a foot of old snow that has weakened into a mix of sugary facets and thin crusts. As the first few inches of snow add up today, new snow sluffs will be easy to trigger, running on the crusts or the weak facets. These loose snow sluffs will run further than expected in steep terrain.
If you're in terrain that gets more than about 6 inches of snow on top of the old, weak snow, expect to trigger very sensitive shallow slabs of snow, especially in any wind drifted areas. These slides will be breaking on the persistent weak layer of faceted snow, and can be triggered from a distance. While shallow, again, they could run much further than expected.
Doug Wewer - Snowpit photo from 8700', N/NE aspect on Ogden Mountain.
Here is a great video about the current snowpack.
Doug Wewer, on Mount Ogden - Check out the full Observeration HERE.
Here is a great photo by Greg Gagne what the old snow pack looked like on an upper elevation, shady slope yesterday within the Cottonwoods - a similar structure exists in the Ogden area mountains.
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