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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Sunday, March 5, 2023
Areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exist on steep, northerly facing slopes above treeline that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on northerly aspects at all elevations for human triggered avalanches 2'-4' deep failing on a buried persistent weak layer.
A MODERATE avalanche danger also exists for human triggered avalanches involving slabs of wind drifted snow on slopes near treeline and above that face W-N-SE
Most other south facing terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed over a snowpacked surface.
Grooming: Matt groomed all trails on Saturday.
To help you safely enjoy the backcountry, the UAC team is constantly evaluating and implementing new programs and technologies. Donate to the Spring Campaign to help our team implement innovative tools and better provide you with the information you rely on.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 229" Base Depth at Gold Basin 85"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak SSE 15-25 G37 Temp 23F
Weather
Strong southerly winds are in the forecast today though they don't look as bad as originally expected. Today look for partly sunny skies with SW winds blowing in the 35-45 mph range with higher gusts. High temps will be in the mid 20's. We'll see breezy conditions over the next couple of days while a series of shortwave troughs passing by to the north keep the weathern pattern active.
General Conditions
It's a complex landscape out there. 10" of new snow fell mid-week and strong winds have been actively blowing it around and will continue to do so. Exposed slopes are getting scoured and stripped, while fresh slabs of wind drifrted snow are being deposited on leeward aspects. Perhaps even more concerning is the continued presence of buried weak layers, and in our travels yesterday we found them to be more reactive then anticipated. Travis Nauman and company were out and about yesterday as well and found similar conditions. See their observation here. Look for rising danger today and avoid steep, northerly facing terrain. Seek out low angle, sheltered terrain for the best and safest riding and turning conditions.
Check out this video of conditions yesterday.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
A few, relatively small natural avalanches involving recent and wind drifted snow have been observed since Wednesday's storm event. Brian Murdock reported seeing some older activity on Norieaga's face yesterday.
See the La Sal avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong winds will blow and drift snow into shallow fresh slabs sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider today. Fresh slabs will be the deepest in upper elevation, northerly facing terrain. Fresh drifts will also overly older slabs that formed earlier in the week. Older, hard wind slabs can be very stubborn and may not release until you get well out on them. Avoid steep slopes that have a smooth rounded appearance or that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
In our travels yesterday, we unfortuantely discovered that the Valentine's layer we have been tracking has suddenly become reactive, likely due to incremental loading over the past several weeks. Travis Nauman also had these findings and he observed other areas with weak faceted snow as well. Wind drifted snow will add additional stress to the complicated picture, and for now we need tio assume that all slopes steeper than 30 degrees area suspect, and that human triggered avalanches failing 2'-3' deep on this weak layer are possible.
Additional Information
SNOTEL data from the LSMU1 plot near the Geyser Pass Trailhead is near off the chart at 167% of average.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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