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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, March 15, 2026

A MODERATE avalanche danger remains on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-E. Human-triggered, hard slab avalanches 2–4 feet deep, failing on a buried persistent weak layer, remain POSSIBLE in these areas. If triggered, these avalanches could step down and involve the entire season’s snowpack.

The likelihood for triggering this type of avalanche continues to decrease but the consequences remain the same. Likely trigger points include shallow rocky areas, thin spots along slope margins or convexities, or in areas of very steep, rocky, radical terrain.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is melted down to dirt, expect wet and muddy conditions as the day heats up.

Grooming: No grooming is scheduled. Cover is thin, and conditions are rough.

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Weather and Snow

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 75" Depth at Gold Basin: 30"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 20-30 G 38 Temp: 28°F

Weather

A passing cold front and a shift to northwest flow will make for cool and windy conditions in the mountains today. Skies will be mostly sunny but high temps at 10,000 feet are not expected to rise above freezing. Winds blowing from the northwest will be in the 20-30 mph range and gusts of 50 mph are possible along ridge tops. Windy conditions continue overnight with low temperatures dropping into the teens. Temperatures rebound on Monday as high pressure begins to build over the region. A warming trend lies ahead with a high likelihood for record breaking temperatures later in the week.

General Conditions

Mixed bag, spring like conditions are in effect and snow cover is dwindling, especially on south aspects (see my observation from Friday). Corn snow on southerly aspects that hold snow has been the best game in town this past week, but in spite of a good freeze last night, and mostly sunny conditions today, cool temps and strong winds will likely prevent things from softening. Tomorrow and Tuesday should provide more opportunity for corn harvesting before the big meltdown starts on Wednesday.

The main threat from avalanches continues to be on northerly aspects near and above treeline, where hard slabs exist over layers of weak, dry, faceted snow.

See all Moab observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been observed. The avalanche database has been updated to include all observed avalanches from the last cycle. These are all great examples of the type of avalanche that are possible to trigger.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Buried layers of weak, faceted snow continue to plague our snowpack near and above treeline on northerly facing slopes. Above treeline, thick, hard slabs 2-4 feet thick sit on top of these persistent weak layers. Although the likelihood for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche has significantly decreased, all it takes is finding the right trigger point such as a shallow, rocky area or thin spot over a convexity. There are many slopes out there now where you can get away with it, but when it comes to life and death, I don't want to just get away with it, I want to know that it's good to go. For that reason, I'm continuing to avoid steep northerly aspects.

Additional Information

Thanks to all team members who came down to help us put on another successful Mountain Film event!

General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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