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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Wednesday morning, March 12, 2025
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes that face W-N-E and it is POSSIBLE for skiers and riders to trigger avalanches failing on deeply buried persistent weak layers. The danger is most pronounced on steep northerly slopes near treeline. While the likelihood of triggering a slide has decreased, the consequences remain severe. Any slide failing on facets will be deep, dangerous, and potentially unsurvivable.
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Special Announcements
We come to you with heavy hearts and great sadness this morning to confirm an avalanche accident on Friday, March 7th near Hoyt Peak, involving 51 year old Micheal Janulaitis from Marion, Utah. Micheal used a snowbike to access the terrain, but was caught, carried, and killed in an avalanche while skiing a steep, northeast facing run on Hoyt Peak.
Huge thanks to the Department of Public Safety, Park City Mountain Resort and Canyons Village Snow Safety and Ski Patrol teams, along with Wasatch Backcountry Rescue for the hard work recovering Micheal and returning him to his family. Micheal was a friend of Utah Avy and we feel privileged for the time we got to spend together. This is a tremendous loss for our backcountry family and we will miss him deeply. We are compiling accident details and a preliminary report is available here.
March kicks off our Spring Campaign! If everyone in Utah’s backcountry community donates the cost of something they regularly enjoy on an adventure—like a dawn patrol burrito, a backpack snack, or post-ride trailhead drinks—we could fund not just one but two forecasters for the entire season! Donate here. Thank you!
The Utah Avalanche Center is excited to host Mountainfilm on Tour in Moab at Star Hall on 3/21 and 3/22. Click here for tickets and information.
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed and is mostly down to the dirt. Roadwork continues today on La Sal Mountain Loop Road and a closure is in place from 8:30 AM to 5:30 PM.
Grooming Conditions: The Gold Basin trail was last groomed on Friday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 97" Depth at Gold Basin: 42"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 28° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 91%
Weather
Pre Laurel Peak wind station and the Gold Basin storm stake are down as we install upgrades including a web cam to the site.
It is 28° F this morning in Gold Basin under mostly cloudy skies. Mountain winds overnight blew out of the southwest in the moderate range with gusts in the strong range. High temperatures today will reach 32° F with decreasing cloud cover and mostly sunny skies. Southwest winds will remain elevated, averaging 15-20 MPH with gusts in the 25-35 MPH range. Strong southwest winds will continue overnight ahead of our next storm system. Moisture arrives tomorrow afternoon beginning with light orographic showers. A cold front arrives tomorrow night, temperatures drop, and snowfall rates increase. The heaviest precipitation will be overnight, and light snow will continue on Friday. Storm totals are expected to be 8-12" of snow with close to 1" of water. We dry out on Sunday with another storm on tap for early next week.
General Conditions
The mountains are in need of a refresh, and the snow surface is getting a little rough out there. Some low-angle northerlies and sheltered shady slopes still hold soft snow. Southerlies may soften up in the strong March sun today, and skiing the sunny slopes this afternoon is good strategy for some spring-like turns and to avoid the PWL problem altogether. Last week’s storm put pressure on buried weak layers of faceted snow, and our persistent weak layer problem is alive and active. The likelihood of triggering this type of avalanche has decreased, but the consequences remain devastating. My fieldwork yesterday yielded stubborn results, but showed an overall poor snowpack structure that is hard to trust. The recent full-depth avalanche in Horse Creek is a great example of the type of avalanche dragon we are currently dealing with. These are deep, dangerous avalanches that will most likely take out the entire season’s snowpack. Some really great observations have been coming in, and all our regular observers continue to avoid avalanche terrain on any slope that harbors poor snowpack structure.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
See the complete avalanche database here.
In my travels yesterday I spotted this avalanche in the Snaggletooth Chutes. The slide most likely occurred the night of 3/7 during the strong NE wind event. This slope is near treeline, north-facing, steep, and rocky. This is the bullseye location for our current avalanche problem.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A key point to remember is that for much of the season, the snowpack has been very shallow. Shallow snow is weak snow, and the faceted layers have remained weak all season long. Typically, by this time of year, we have a deeper snowpack and the facets have had a chance to gain some strength. For now, we have to continue to exercise patience and make careful terrain choices while we wait for this problem to go away. Poor snowpack structure is widespread, and recent stability tests have produced stubborn results. Steep northerly slopes near treeline are the bullseye location for this problem. You are unlikely to see in your face red flag indicators today like collapsing and cracking, but deep, destructive, and deadly human-triggered avalanches remain a real possibility.
The PWL remains active on west-facing slopes, but the avalanche problem is specific to slopes with a relatively deep and layered snowpack. Some west aspects are very thin due to warm temperatures, sun, and wind. These slopes do not pose much of a threat. The only way to know is to probe for depth and dig down to look for weak layers.
Additional Information
Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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