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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Tuesday morning, March 11, 2025
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes that face W-N-E and it is POSSIBLE for skiers and riders to trigger avalanches failing on deeply buried persistent weak layers. The danger is most pronounced on steep northerly slopes near treeline. While the likelihood of triggering a slide has decreased, the consequences remain severe. Any slide failing on facets will be deep, dangerous, and potentially unsurvivable.
We are past the peak of wet avalanche activity on sunny slopes. Cloud cover and strong winds today should keep any wet activity at bay, but pay attention to the snow surface on solar aspects. If the snow is becoming wet and sloppy, it is time to change aspects.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We come to you with heavy hearts and great sadness this morning to confirm an avalanche accident on Friday, March 7th near Hoyt Peak, involving 51 year old Micheal Janulaitis from Marion, Utah. Micheal used a snowbike to access the terrain, but was caught, carried, and killed in an avalanche while skiing a steep, northeast facing run on Hoyt Peak.
Huge thanks to the Department of Public Safety, Park City Mountain Resort and Canyons Village Snow Safety and Ski Patrol teams, along with Wasatch Backcountry Rescue for the hard work recovering Micheal and returning him to his family. Micheal was a friend of Utah Avy and we feel privileged for the time we got to spend together. This is a tremendous loss for our backcountry family and we will miss him deeply. We are compiling accident details and a preliminary report is available here.
March kicks off our Spring Campaign! If everyone in Utah’s backcountry community donates the cost of something they regularly enjoy on an adventure—like a dawn patrol burrito, a backpack snack, or post-ride trailhead drinks—we could fund not just one but two forecasters for the entire season! Donate here. Thank you!
The Utah Avalanche Center is excited to host Mountainfilm on Tour in Moab at Star Hall on 3/21 and 3/22. Click here for tickets and information.
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed and is mostly down to the dirt. Roadwork continues today on La Sal Mountain Loop Road and a closure is in place from 8:30 AM to 5:30 PM.
Grooming Conditions: The Gold Basin trail was last groomed on Friday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 97" Depth at Gold Basin: 43"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 26° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 86%
Weather
Pre Laurel Peak wind station and the Gold Basin storm stake are down as we install upgrades including a web cam to the site.
This morning it is 26° F in Gold Basin. Expect increasing cloud cover with mostly cloudy skies and a high temperature of 36° F this afternoon. Southwest winds will be blustery, with speeds averaging 15-20 MPH and gusts up to 35 MPH. Elevated southwest winds continue tomorrow with mostly sunny skies and highs just above the freezing mark. Another storm moves in on Thursday afternoon, with snow showers lasting through Saturday. This looks like a decent chance for snow, stay tuned for more details.
General Conditions
It is getting harder to find soft powder. Strong sun and warm temperatures have taken a toll on the southerlies, and they will be crusted over this morning. Recent winds have put a damper on exposed northerlies, and the best bet for soft turns are low-angle polars and sheltered shady terrain. Last week’s storm put pressure on buried weak layers of faceted snow, and our persistent weak layer problem is alive and active. The likelihood of triggering this type of avalanche has decreased, but the consequences remain devastating. The recent full-depth avalanche in Horse Creek is a great example of the type of avalanche dragon we are currently dealing with. These are deep, dangerous avalanches that will most likely take out the entire season’s snowpack. Some really great observations have been coming in, and all our regular observers continue to avoid avalanche terrain on any slope that harbors poor snowpack structure. Wet activity remains a potential threat today, but strong winds and cloud cover should keep this type of activity to a minimum. Pay attention to the snow surface on sunny slopes, and if the snow becomes saturated, it’s time to move on.
This video is from my fieldwork on Sunday:
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
See the complete avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
My co-worker Brett Kobernik stated it perfectly the other day when he wrote, “These persistent weak layers have really lived up to their name this year as they have persisted since early in the winter. All you can do is avoid steep terrain until we are satisfied that these layers have gained enough strength. We aren't there yet.”
Unfortunately, we have to continue to exercise patience and make careful terrain choices while we wait for this problem to go away. Poor snowpack structure is widespread, and stability tests continue to produce poor results. Steep northerly slopes near treeline are the bullseye for this problem. You are unlikely to see in your face red flag indicators today like collapsing and cracking, but deep, destructive, and deadly human-triggered avalanches remain a real possibility.
The PWL remains active on west-facing slopes, but the avalanche problem is specific to slopes with a relatively deep and layered snowpack. Some west aspects are very thin due to warm temperatures, sun, and wind. These slopes do not pose much of a threat. The only way to know is to probe for depth and dig down to look for weak layers.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A strong sun and very warm temperatures today will bring on a rising danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. The danger follows the sun with east facing slopes affected first and westerly aspects getting hit later in the day. Signs of instability include roller balls, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow up around your boot tops. Stay off of, and out from under steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Additional Information
Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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