Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Tuesday morning, February 4, 2025
The overall danger is LOW and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely. Small avalanches remain possible in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

As the heatwave continues, expect an increasing likelihood for small, loose wet avalanches, especially if we see any sunshine today. Pay attention to the snow surface and avoid steep slopes that are becoming wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.
Urgent battery replacement required for anyone who received batteries from one of our participating "Batteries for Beacons" shops. Please review the "Batteries for Beacons" replacement notice on our blog. Batteries distributed through our "Batteries for Beacons" program this year have shown to be inadequate length.
Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy above and bare dirt down low. AWD with good tires recommended.
Grooming Conditions: Trails have not been groomed since Wednesday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 63" Depth at Gold Basin: 28"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 20-30 G 35 Temp: 39° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 70%
Weather
Southwest winds remain elevated for the third consecutive day. Today's winds stay southwesterly and average 20-25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH. High temperatures will reach the low 40s° F under mostly cloudy skies. Unseasonably warm temperatures continue for the next few days. A low-pressure system on Friday will bring snow to the mountains north of I-70, and temperatures will drop back to normal for this time of year. This system will bring clouds and a slight chance of snow showers to our region on Friday and Saturday.
General Conditions
The snow surface is thoroughly beaten down at pretty much all aspects and elevations. The big news is the weather, we have had three consecutive nights without a refreeze in the mountains. Today will be another warm one. The chances for wet loose avalanches are slowly increasing each day. In my travels yesterday, I found cold dry snow on the northerlies and damp surface snow on the southerlies. Yesterday, the threat of wet activity was pretty low and will increase only slightly today. After all, it is still winter, and the sun is pretty low in the sky. Also, strong winds are moving the air around and keeping snow surface temperatures relatively cold. All that said, if you are traveling on solar aspects, look for signs of loose wet avalanches. This should be an easy problem to manage today.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Low danger doesn't mean no danger, and here are a few things to keep in mind as you travel through the backcountry today.
  • Loose Wet Avalanches - We are experiencing an unusual mid-winter heat wave and consecutive nights without a re-freeze. Surface snow is becoming damp and consolidated on top of a weak, faceted snow structure. I think the threat is overall minimal, but pay attention to the snow surface and avoid steep slopes that are wet and sloppy.
  • Persistent Weak Layer - Our snowpack is generally weak and faceted in many areas. This is different than your typical late-season low danger. If you are getting into big lines and steep terrain, it is always wise to evaluate the snowpack first. Look for slabs over weak layers. Reduce your risk by avoiding likely trigger points like shallow rocky areas, steep convexities, and thin slab margins.
  • Wind Drifted Snow - The La Sals are a high, islolated, wind swept mountain range and snow is often transported and then deposited as slabs of wind drifted snow. The current threat is isolated to specific terrain features and avalanches will be small, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff in the wrong location. Remain cautious of smooth, rounded, hollow feeling, areas, especially when in consequential terrain.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.