Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Wednesday morning, February 5, 2025
The overall danger is LOW and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely. Small avalanches remain possible in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

As the heatwave continues, expect an increasing likelihood of small, loose wet avalanches. Pay attention to the snow surface and avoid steep slopes that are becoming wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.
Urgent battery replacement required for anyone who received batteries from one of our participating "Batteries for Beacons" shops. Please review the "Batteries for Beacons" replacement notice on our blog. Batteries distributed through our "Batteries for Beacons" program this year have shown to be inadequate length.
Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy above and bare dirt down low. AWD with good tires recommended.
Grooming Conditions: Trails have not been groomed since Wednesday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 63" Depth at Gold Basin: 27"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 23 G 37 Temp: 29° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 70%
Weather
Southwest winds continue to hammer in the mountains for the fourth consecutive day. Overnight, winds out the southwest averaged in the 20's MPH, gusting to the upper 30's MPH. Today's winds will remain elevated, with gusts up to 45 MPH. It will be mostly sunny, and high temperatures will once again reach the low 40s° F. Warm temperatures, strong winds, and sunshine persist through Friday. Friday night and Saturday we will see some clouds, a small chance of snow flurries, and temperatures will return to normal.
General Conditions
It's a beautiful day to... go for a mountain bike ride. All aspects and elevations suffer from the lack of snow and recent strong winds. The mountains got a shallow refreeze last night, temperatures dipped below freezing for the last four hours. Temperatures will once again climb into the 40s° F. While the threat is low, skiers and riders should continue to watch for signs of wet loose activity on solar aspects. Roller balls, pinwheels, wet slushy snow, and deep boot penetration are all signs that the snow surface is too warm and it's time to change aspect.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Low danger doesn't mean no danger, and here are a few things to keep in mind as you travel through the backcountry today.
  • Loose Wet Avalanches - We are experiencing an unusual mid-winter heat wave and consecutive nights without a re-freeze. Surface snow is becoming damp and consolidated on top of a weak, faceted snow structure. I think the threat is overall minimal, but pay attention to the snow surface and avoid steep slopes that are wet and sloppy.
  • Persistent Weak Layer - Our snowpack is generally weak and faceted in many areas. This is different than your typical late-season low danger. If you are getting into big lines and steep terrain, it is always wise to evaluate the snowpack first. Look for slabs over weak layers. Reduce your risk by avoiding likely trigger points like shallow rocky areas, steep convexities, and thin slab margins.
  • Wind Drifted Snow - The La Sals are a high, islolated, wind swept mountain range and snow is often transported and then deposited as slabs of wind drifted snow. The current threat is isolated to specific terrain features and avalanches will be small, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff in the wrong location. Remain cautious of smooth, rounded, hollow feeling, areas, especially when in consequential terrain.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.