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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, February 19, 2024
The avalanche danger is MODERATE. The likelihood continues to decrease but deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain possible on steep slopes that face W-N-E-SE with the greatest danger existing on slopes facing NW-N-E. If you venture into avalanche terrain, minimize your risk by avoiding thinner snowpack areas; rocky, radical terrain; and slopes with complex terrain features.
There may be a few shallow slabs of wind drifted snow lurking about on northerly aspects above treeline. Fresh drifts generally have a smooth rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Older, stiff slabs may sound or feel hollow underneath.

A generally LOW danger exists on slopes facing S-SW.
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Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
It was great to meet some new Moab locals and to pass along information to out of town visitors at our Trailhead Avalanche Awareness Program on Saturday!
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Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road is plowed but snowpacked and slick!
Grooming: LUNA groomed Gold Basin through Geyser Pass and set classic track on Sunday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 1" 72 Hour Snow 2" Season Total Snow 132" Depth at Gold Basin 51"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: W 5-10 G30 Temp 17° Percent of Normal: 100%

Weather
After blowing in the 15-25 mph range along ridge tops for most of the day yesterday, winds from the SW have backed off and shifted to westerly this morning. Today, look for sunny skies, warm temps climbing up into the mid 30's at 10,000', and moderate SW winds. The short lived ridge will move eastward tonight, but a jet streak will continue to feed warm air from the SW into the region along with increasing winds, and the first blips of AR (atmospheric river) moisture in the form of clouds on Tuesday. By Wednesday, we should see some snow developing but most of the event looks to be tracking north of our area. Stay tuned.
General Conditions
Backcountry travelers continue to report good snow conditions on sheltered, northerly aspects, and folks are slowly starting to step up terrain. A party staying in the Gold Basin yurt sent in this observation from the Corkscrew Glades. This area of moderately steep terrain below treeline is notorious for harboring weak snow, and a deep, natural avalanche occurred over there on Feb 7. They observed weak, basal facets in a shallower snowpack area (135 cm), but got no results with a stability test. And therein lies the rub - although the likelihood for triggering an avalanche has decreased, it remains weak under there, and that's something that's hard for forecasters to trust. If you do venture into avalanche terrain, keep in mind that the deeper the snowpack is, the stronger it is (see this observation from Chris Benson). Minimize your risk by avoiding thinner snowpack areas along slope margins, near rocky outcrops, or at the base of cliffs. Avoid steep slopes with complex terrain features.
SW winds over the last couple of days have transported snow and built some shallow stiff slabs along the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, northerly facing terrain. Keep an eye out for those today if you are in the high country.
We've had some other good observations over the weekend. See the full list here.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's no secret that we have a persistent weak layer of faceted snow at the base of the snowpack on W-N-E-SE aspects, and that this layer produced numerous deep avalanches during the stormy period between Feb 2-8. As the dust settles so to speak, human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer are becoming less likely but the results remain potentially deadly. In my travels on Friday, I dug at lower elevations where the snowpack is shallow and continued to have reactive stability tests. Low elevations aren't the only places with a shallow snowpack and these are the areas where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche. You really need to do your homework before committing to anything steep. Dig, or pull out your probe. I'm starting to feel better about areas that are about 180-200 cms deep. Avoid steep, rocky terrain, thinner areas along slope margins, and steep, blind roll overs or convexities. These are all likely trigger points.
In the snowpit below, dug on a NE aspect at 10,000', an extended column test produced results of ECTP26 on weak faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. This tells us that although stubborn, we have propagation, therefore we can still trigger an avalanche, particularly in shallow snowpack areas such as this. I also found a reactive layer of surface hoar in this snowpit 22 cms down. This isn't widespread so I've taken it out of the discussion, but it's interesting nevertheless. See my observation for more details.
Extended column test results of ECTP26 failing on the basal facets. This is somewhat stubborn but it illustrates that deep avalanches remain possible, especially in shallow snowpack areas. HS or Height of Snow is snowgeek speak for total depth. Below is how snowgeeks record snowpit data. The further a layer moves to the left, the harder is. We're looking for hard (strong) layers over soft (weak) layers. By looking at it this way, it's clear to see the strong snow over top of the weak snow.
Additional Information
Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.
Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.